Strong export sales helped grains recover overnight in price.

Grain futures rebounded overnight as bargain buying followed two sessions of profit-taking. Despite the recent wave of selling, there’s been little change fundamentally to justify such pressure. In fact, demand has been steadily improving. The renewed interest from China in U.S. soybeans has helped erase fears that Beijing would stay sidelined. Even if this buying proves short-lived, it's still demand that wasn’t expected just a few weeks ago.

Corn is also seeing solid demand with South Korea and Mexico stepping in to cover feed grain needs. These transactions are helping to stabilize market tone. Our export sales were out this morning: corn at 2.26 MMT, soybeans at 919,400 in old crop, and wheat at 887,900 MMT. Strong numbers for corn. This caused grains to go out at the best levels of the night session.

Yesterday, a White House announcement added some weight to the soy complex. The administration signaled that it may delay the suspension of imported biofuel incentives, contrary to earlier messaging. The energy sector warned that removing these incentives too abruptly would be economically damaging. As a result, a one- to two-year delay is now being considered, which could open the door for increased imports of cheap used cooking oil and potentially slow domestic soy crush margins.

Elsewhere, fresh headlines are sparse. Weather across South America remains favorable primarily, though some Brazilian analysts are already trimming crop outlooks due to early dryness. Rain is still in the forecast but will need to verify soon to maintain optimism. Outside markets have steadied this morning, helping to support the commodity complex. With a quieter macro backdrop, attention is returning to core ag fundamentals, where buyers are starting to reemerge.

It was a steady higher opening initially yesterday for cattle futures and feeders, but then tumbled late in the session, as the USDA put out a report that showed cattle weights had jumped substantially in October. Cattle were 6 pounds heavier than the prior month, and again 25 pounds heavier than a year ago, when weights were already rising. To put this into perspective, a 25-pound increase in carcass weight per year, given our total cattle numbers, adds 1 million head to the herd!. When this data came out, live cattle led the initial decline, which took out early-week lows before recovering into the close. Feeder cattle, thin and fickle as they are, were begrudgingly following the weakness, but then broke down when it went under 320, and all 2026 contracts went to tag limit down before a substantial recovery into the close.

The cash feeder index was up $0.53 at $340.02, with November feeder cattle settling at 341.67. We saw live sales in the north being quoted at $215-219, which is off $6-11 for the week. Live sales in the South moved at $224, which was off $ $4 from last week’s average price. This put the five-area average for cattle at $220. Midweek slaughter is 357,000 head versus three and 51,000 last week and 373,000 a year ago. Box beef had a choice slipping $0.72 and select was down $1.40.

Yesterday, feeder cattle traded in another $11-12.00 range, while live cattle traded in a $7.00 range. These live cattle need to develop support in that 214-215 range, where initially found stability, or else we will be on our way to the longer-term measured move theory of 207-209 I have produced in several reports. Feeder cattle, meanwhile, yesterday found support at their 62% retracement of last Friday’s low. Feeder cattle struggled to follow live cattle lower yesterday, so support should be in that 316-317 range today if weakness were to reapply.