Happy New Year! Corn and wheat are called firm to start the session, while soybeans are softer.

Happy New Year! The grain markets are called steady and firm for corn and wheat, while soybeans are steady and softer on recirculating bean deliveries. Opened firmer this morning, but volume is extremely light. Most traders finished adjusting positions before Christmas or New Year’s, and it’s unlikely many will return for a single trading day to make new moves. Some may even stay sidelined until the January 12 WASDE and quarterly stocks report, which are among the most anticipated updates of the year. That report is just six trading days away.

Outside markets are providing early support. Gold is up more than $40+, silver is gaining near $3, and equity markets are starting the day in positive territory. Energies are slightly lower but trying to firm, while the US dollar is trading higher.

There’s limited fresh news to drive trade today, which isn’t surprising given the calendar. Attention will stay on South American weather developments and US export activity. Deliveries against January contracts include 913 lots of soybeans and 48 of soy oil, with no soybean meal deliveries listed.

Geopolitical concerns are growing again. Fighting in the Black Sea remains intense, China is conducting military drills near Taiwan, and US tensions with Venezuela are heating up. While none of these directly affect production, they raise risk around grain logistics.

Traders are also watching for any new flash sales, particularly soybean sales to China. China continues to work toward its 12 million metric ton target and has already booked over 9 million. Any additional sales would likely be seen as confirmation that buying is on pace. The market will also be watching for the monthly grain and soybean crush data, which is scheduled for release after today’s close.

South American temps have cooled off to start the week after a brutal two-day stretch of extreme heat, which capped off the hottest period of the year across Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil. Daily highs had pushed into the 100°F to 106°F range before a sharp front brought much-needed relief, pulling most areas back into the upper 70s to mid-80s. That cool down has eased immediate crop stress, but it’s temporary, attention is now turning to rain prospects next week.

Argentina and Uruguay remain on the radar. These areas still need measurable rainfall, and weather models are hinting at a potential system early in the second week of the outlook window. If that fizzles, concerns will return fast. Western Argentina hasn’t cooled as much. Temps there are expected to stay elevated, with highs in the low to mid-90s, keeping soil moisture deficits in play. With La Niña fingerprints growing more visible across the region, traders should expect volatility to pick up if rain misses the forecast.

Bottom line: the break in heat helps near-term sentiment, but the market won’t take its eye off South America. Moisture deficits and spotty rain distribution are still in control of the narrative. Watch next week’s rainfall window closely, it’s shaping up as the next major directional input.

This morning’s cattle trade is difficult to anticipate, as the news that came out one hour before the close on Wednesday about China’s import quotas is getting mixed reviews. The US is not affected by it, as we are only exporting one-third of our quota of beef to China, whereas Brazil and Australia are adversely affected. Brazil was exporting 1.7 MMTs of beef roughly to China, and now has to pay a 55% tariff on any beef over 1 MMT. So the question is, will Brazil redirect those exports to the US since our tariffs have been lowered with minimal quotas. Wednesdays trade did not react much to this news, possibly because of a lack of trader participation in volume. It’s something that needs to be watched in today’s session, that if weakness develops on the live cattle side, it probably is the building issue.

The negotiated fed cattle sales on Wednesday were quoted at $360 for the dressed trade, which was a bump of $5 for the week, while the sales in the South were quoted up $1-3 at $230.50-232.00. February cattle continued to hover in the 230 mark, with Friday’s bump to 232 quickly retreating by the close. Support in the meantime is at 226, while feeder cattle March is now into the gap resistance, with critical support at 336-337. On the continuation chart, 351 is a 62% retracement of the fall price collapse.