Turnaround Tuesday is trying to make an appearance.
Futures are mixed this
morning, with consolidation following yesterday’s sell-off. Yesterday’s
losses were not so much from fresh selling but rather from profit-taking on
existing positions. This was most notable in the outside markets, primarily the
precious metals, with several contracts seeing sharp declines. This pressure
spilled over into the ag sector and was a primary cause of our losses in corn,
soybeans, and wheat.
This morning, we are
seeing the markets stabilize with the soy complex turning higher. Interesting note on
exports: we have now seen our exports top 1 billion bu before the end of the
year. This is the first time it has ever happened. Exports are up 66% over last
year. Many want to call this front-loading. That certainly can be the case, but
to be this dramatic tells you we own the corn market, and we own it until June.
Ethanol margins continue to hold at five cents/gallon.
More attention is being
paid to South American weather as Argentina's growing conditions deteriorate. Argentina is
forecast to receive just 50% of its normal precipitation over the next two
weeks with climbing temperatures, verifying a building La Niña event.
Geopolitical hot spots
this morning include the Black Sea, China is holding military drills around Taiwan,
and the US is now attacking targets in Venezuela. While these are not impacting
production, they are an issue in grain logistics.
More year-end positioning
is given in today’s session, as is positioning for first notice day on the January
contracts. US weather will also affect cash markets, as interior movement is
slowing more than usual for this time of year.
Yesterday’s cattle trade
had seen an early push higher with feeder cattle lifting to another new post-November crash
high, due to the sharp rise in the feeder cattle index, but still slipped back
into the close, as live cattle drifted. The consolidation on the board
continues with a lack of money morning to make a new commitment before the end
of the tax year.
December cattle is getting
ready for expiration, and it’s hinting that cash cattle trade will be somewhere near
steady or $1.00 lower for the week. Yesterday’s cash feeder index jumped a
remarkable dollar $6.68 to $356. This sharp rise allowed feeders to push a new
December high but not hold into the close.
The battle lines are drawn for support/resistance. February live cattle have resistance at 232.00, with significant support at 226.00. In March feeder cattle, resistance is 344-348, with support at 336-337.