Chinese buying interest persists.

After spending the overnight session in negative territory, commodity prices firmed as the session progressed. Demand is the keyword in trade right now, following yesterday’s rumor that China had booked US soybeans during the session. It is believed that China booked 14 US soybean vessels yesterday, 8 from the Gulf and 6 from the PNW. There were also reports that China booked some wheat as well. The export basis firmed on this news, providing the market with more support.

Domestic demand was also a driver in yesterday’s trade with a NOPA crush coming in at 227.65 mbu, 18 mbu more than trade expected. This was an all-time high for crush and credited to 2 new plants coming online. That makes 7 new crushers since the start of the year and indicates the USDA may be underestimating yearly soybean demand, especially with China returning to the export market.

Soybeans are already in a rationing position, which could further tighten balance sheets. Yesterday’s rally did entice country movement, but the basis remains firm as buyers want to build reserves ahead of the upcoming US holiday season. If the market continues to rally, this selling will stop as quickly as it started.

Interesting note on South American weather, Brazil’s north and east continue to trend wetter, but the pattern has flipped drier across southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina. Soil moisture remains ample, with only western/northern Argentina showing dryness. This shift should allow for ideal planting, but they will need timely rains to return in December.

Yesterday, cattle futures opened sharply lower on weekend news that the 10% reciprocal tariffs on beef imports are being removed, but quickly found buying interest after a “Sell the rumor, buy the fact” mentality hit the marketplace, and discounts to cash became the focus. With Brazilian tariffs still in place and no indication of when they will be lifted, cattle futures have confirmed a significant low as of last Friday.

The cash feeder index was down $1.84, putting it at $341.89. November feeder cattle expire today, with the difference as of this morning being within $2 died 00. It’s January’s significant discount to cash that had January feeders place $16 off of Friday’s low with yesterday’s $5.50 again. Last week’s 5-area average price was $225, off $4 on the week as Packers saw declining volumes due to weaker prices. Negotiated beef is at a 5-near low for the week at 54,870 head. Last week’s dress value was again lower at $351, but formula pricing was much higher at $369. Forward contracts sales on a negotiated grid price were near $374.

Stability has arrived in the cattle trade, with $215 significant for December live cattle and $ 310 for January feeder cattle. Retracement rallies are underway, but that is not mean pullbacks from such a sharp rally now are not immune. Yesterday had a significant $12.00 daily trading range for January feeder cattle, with prior days almost reaching double-digit levels as well. Today’s trade should mark a significant reduction in day trade range sizing.