Soybeans bounce overnight on Chinese tariff reduction for November 10.

The soy complex is seeing a moderate recovery this morning after yesterday’s selling proved to be overdone. Much of the pressure on soybeans yesterday came from profit-taking, especially in meal following a $52 rally. Overnight, soybeans retested Monday’s highs after news that China suspended its retaliatory 10% tariff for November 10. However, traders remain cautious as questions persist about how much buying may actually develop.

Corn is also trading firmer this morning, supported by continued strong export interest. Drier weather for Brazil’s safrinha crop and reports of Chinese production losses are adding further support.

Wheat, meanwhile, is slightly weaker. Even with ongoing drought concerns, the U.S. crop is still viewed as improved from last year. There are emerging reports of reduced winter wheat acreage in Montana. It is believed that 150,000 to 200,000 metric tons of U.S. soft red winter (SRW) wheat were purchased through the Gulf, along with an unspecified amount of soft white wheat (SWW) last Friday, bringing total sales to around 400,000 to 500,000 metric tons. Still, the overall lack of urgency in the grain markets continues to limit upside potential for both corn and wheat.

Cash markets remain firm, offering underlying support, although some areas of the Corn Belt are seeing increased farmer selling.

More private analysts are releasing estimates ahead of the upcoming WASDE report, which will likely guide today’s trade direction. Weekly ethanol data is also due out, with expectations for a 1% to 2% increase in production. What the market truly wants to see is renewed Chinese export business. Until that happens, overall activity is likely to remain subdued.

The U.S. government shutdown has now become the longest in history, though some lawmakers believe a resolution may finally be approaching. Also, of note, today, the Supreme Court will be hearing legal arguments related to Trump’s tariffs and his legal authority for their use. If rejected, President Trump has other means to apply tariffs, but they do require a bit more investigation time.

After a firm start yesterday, live and feeder cattle collapsed at mid-session, with feeder cattle putting in their second-lowest close from the recent selloff. Index funds are rumored to be unwinding further long positions, as they just choose to exit this market, feeling money can be used elsewhere more easily. Their selling is not tied to cash market performance, other than rallies are now meant to be sold. Yesterday, live and feeder cattle stalled at chart points shown in yesterday’s video for multiple days in a row, which likely triggered index fund selling that overwhelmed itself late in the session. Softer start is anticipated this morning and follow-through action. Yesterday’s cash feeder index had showed a gain of $3.46 to $346.79.

Last week’s support for December cattle at $223 is key, while January feeder cattle need to hold $320. Yesterday's rejection of resistance has become significant now for December cattle at 233, with January feeder cattle stalling out one tick under 340, which strategically is just under the gap down that occurred last week. The news out of Mexico after Sec. Rollins visit continues to maintain that infestation levels are still not eradicated enough to risk imports of Mexican feeder cattle starting anytime soon.