Turnaround-Tuesday is underway row crops today.

This morning’s grain trade is seeing profit-taking develop in soybeans and corn for a Turnaround-Tuesday after their spectacular run the past two weeks while wheat is mixed after its recent surge. Yesterday was first trading day of the month, classic for a surge into it to stall.  News that China is booking Brazil soybeans along with US soybeans is removing some of the bullish sentiment following last week’s market run up following the US/China trade agreement. Last week, China bought seven vessels.

A simple correction from yesterday’s rally is also weighing on the soy complex, as is the end of meals run of 14 consecutive higher closes that took the contract well into overbought territory.

Outside markets are under pressure this morning, and those losses are spilling over into the commodities sector. A growing point of market interest is the continued delay in biofuel policy, which traders had expected to be released this week. This lack of clarity is affecting not just commodity markets but also equities. Shares of Archer Daniels Midland are down nearly 8% this morning, largely tied to the uncertainty surrounding biofuel support and mandates.

The U.S. government shutdown has now officially become the longest on record, and with no clear resolution in sight, many market participants are growing concerned about the delayed release of key data and the ripple effects it is causing.

Cash markets are showing some weakness to start the day, following last week’s spike in farmer sales during the rally. Interior basis levels have been retreating as processors and buyers adjust to softer margins. Declining profitability in ethanol production and soybean crush is having a dampening effect, even in areas where movement remains slow. That said, export basis values are holding steady, indicating that global demand remains supportive even as domestic signals soften.

Soybeans in Brazil are $0.40-$0.75/bushel cheaper for December/January shipment. For February, Brazil is $1.25/Bu cheaper. Private Chinese buyers will avoid US beans; only the two government importers will be buying US beans, which are likely to be stored due to their drier content than South American beans. This will be a value problem since yesterday's final price surge, sparking the recent $1.20 rally.

Traders remain cautious as month-end and fiscal-year-end pressures add another layer of uncertainty. With limited fresh news and no major policy signals, much of the market's direction will depend on external developments, particularly regarding biofuel mandates and any movement in U.S.–China trade progress.

Live and feeder cattle futures opened higher yesterday and extended their gains quickly, close to the prior week’s highs. The “Wears the Beef” mentality runs strong as the news that broke the market is not seeing follow-through implementation. Brazilian beef tariffs remain at 50% and have not been lowered to the rumored 10%, while the USDA Sec. Rollins, who was in Mexico yesterday, has not issued any statement yet about whether any Mexican calves will be allowed to cross the border into the US. She did state that surging beef prices is a “non-factor” in the decision-making process and highlighted concerns over illicit cattle moved across the border as an issue she wants to investigate further, noting Mexico’s recent protective measures.

Box beef prices again gained, while select was higher by $1.28. Typically, we see steady-better price trends after October. Last week had seen lower negotiated sales, but it was on fewer numbers. The 5-area average live steer price was off $ $7 for the week and was at a 4-week low. Negotiated sales were up 21,000 head with 55,000 head traded. This would also be 32,000 head less than a year ago. We will have a cattle on feed report on November 21, two off as they have to incorporate the missed October data. Live and feeder cattle look to be set to see a further recovery in pricing, which would be a ”B” wave recovery. Feeder cattle have a large gap to target in the 340-348 range, with a 38% retracement value marked at 345 for the January contract which is on the continuation charts.