Markets are starting the day broadly higher, with strength across the ag sector and energies and sharp gains in the U.S. dollar. Gold is leading headlines with a $60 rally overnight, setting new all-time highs in early trade. Tech stocks are also posting strong gains, fueled by overnight developments in global trade deals that are seen as highly favorable to the sector.

Agricultural futures are finding support from shrinking production estimates, particularly in soybeans, where output is expected to fall well short of projected demand. This is amplifying bullish sentiment across grain markets heading into a busy harvest week.

The U.S. government remains shut down, and expectations for a quick resolution are fading. One of the primary sticking points in negotiations continues to be over insurance rates, with no clear breakthrough on the horizon. Geopolitical developments are also in focus. Reports this morning suggest Hamas is showing increased openness to the latest peace proposal with Israel. However, there is no sign of de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine, where both sides are intensifying their military activity.

Attention is also shifting toward South American weather, particularly Brazil. While southern Brazil is receiving adequate rainfall, central and northern regions remain dry. No meaningful improvement is expected in these key growing areas until later in October. If dryness persists, it could disrupt Brazil’s entire growing and marketing calendar, similar to last year.

Most of this week’s market focus will remain on U.S. harvest reports. Weather conditions are favorable for active fieldwork, and progress is expected to accelerate across much of the Corn Belt.

The October WASDE report is scheduled for release this Thursday, but given the ongoing government shutdown, its release is highly unlikely at this time. On Friday, the Linn Group put a corn estimate out at 184.7 BPA with the bean yield of 52.1 BPA. The soybean guess, if realized, would exceptionally tighten up ending stocks.

Last week ended mixed for live and feeder cattle, but a late session rally kept futures from being lower overall. The cash cattle trade was lower, with fed cattle in the north off $3 at $230, while the South was also off $3 at $233. Box beef prices saw choice give up $9, while select was lower by $7. Last week the cash feeder index gave up $2.47 after setting a record high earlier in the week.
Cargo has announced that its Fort Morgan, Colorado, plant closed on October 3 for 10 days to install upgrades. The plant has an estimated capacity of 4000 head/day, which will support beef but will negatively affect cattle prices in the area.

December live cattle have support at 232, and if that gives way, it could be the start of a wave C decline into the low 220s. Feeder cattle must plug the gap directly above Friday’s close from 356.20 to 357.75. Failure to plug that gap will have November feeders quickly challenging the 350 mark. 350 is critical support that, if it falls through, will also have a wave C lower that will have feeders quickly near 340.