This morning’s grain trade is mixed with wheat firmer, corn steady, and soybeans slightly softer. Grains are consolidating their bounce from yesterday after Pres. Trump said he will be meeting with China’s president Xi at the end of October and will make soybean purchases a number one topic.

Developing strength underneath the market also comes this morning as Treasury Secretary Bessent stated this morning that the US will announce “substantial” aid for farmers this coming Tuesday. This could help slow farmer sales knowing funds are on the way, forcing buyers to increase their bids by narrowing their basis to acquire much needed corn and soybeans. Some areas are tight, awaiting harvest sales to fill empty storage.

Mixed yield reports and a general consensus that US production will fall from current estimates are providing market support, as is ongoing solid demand. Now, with the government shut down, information flow will decline even more. Cash markets are strengthening across the US, separating themselves from the futures market. This is especially in areas where harvest has been slow to start, and old crop stocks are being depleted. There are no USDA export sales reports this morning, nor will we see flash sales.

StoneX released their yield estimates for the unlikely USDA October 9 WASDE crop production report. They lowered their corn yield to 185.9, almost 3 bushels lower than their August guess, but increased the soybean yield to 53.9 BPA, which would put it higher than the September NASS report by .3 BPA. This kept soybeans initially softer in the evening session and into the morning close.

Saudi Arabia is tendering for 420,000 MTs of 12.5% protein wheat for delivery in December and January. This is firming the wheat trade this morning, as the last time Saudi Arabia tendered in May, it picked up 621,000 MTs.

Dry weather dominates across the Midwest, with warm temperatures allowing the harvest to move quickly. Shower chances return in two weeks, but in the meantime, the row crop harvest will progress rapidly. This will limit the short-term upside grain price movement, as sales continue to go against the board with crops that can’t be stored. Meanwhile, with USDA support on the way when it reopens, farmers will hold as much grain as possible in storage, awaiting crop problems in South America this winter, or successful trade negotiations for China to start procuring US grains in the new year. It’s not uncommon for China to buy beans in the first and second quarter of the year, as they have done it before. It’s just that everybody’s so used to them buying August-January that they fail to realize that a crop year runs from September 1 through September 1 of the following year, and export sales are adjusted upward or downward as the year progresses.

Live and feeder cattle futures pushed higher yesterday with feeder cattle stalling out right at perceived resistance in the 362-363 range before tumbling into the close. Box beef was again lower yesterday, as well as the feeder index, when that came out near 11 o’clock, early strength gave up. The feeder index yesterday was lower by $0.62 at $3 64.71, while box beef had seen choice down $2.56, and select was off $0.36.

There was some light cash trade yesterday on a dressed basis with Nebraska and Iowa at $360, which was off $5 for the week. A soft October board implies the southern trade will get pulled lower later this week. Feeder cattle put in a substantial recovery higher on Tuesday, which saw follow-through on Wednesday to the upside falter. Yesterday’s high stopped precisely at the trendline resistance when drawn from the August 27 high against the September 23 high, making 362.70-363.70 a significant resistance barrier for feeder cattle on rallies until overtaken.