Grain futures are fractionally softer on corn and beans this morning, while wheat retreats a few pennies. As of this writing, corn and wheat are still slightly higher on the week than last Friday, while soybeans are off $0.14. Note that soybeans produced a close on Monday at 1011, and every daily close since, including this morning’s action, is holding that price level.

News remains limited this morning, with most market focus centered on the advancing U.S. harvest. Yield reports continue to show wide variability, particularly in corn. While some producers are seeing yields comparable to last year, others are reporting steep declines where disease pressure has been significant—some down as much as 70 bushels per acre. The harvest pace has been slower than normal, which is helping to firm interior basis levels. End users are entering harvest with limited coverage, and with light deliveries so far, corn basis is strengthening. Soybean basis is also starting to tighten, following a similar pattern. Forecasts suggest a pickup in harvest activity next week as favorable weather moves in.

International trade developments are also influencing the market. Argentina has ended its suspension of export taxes, and in response, China has reportedly booked around 40 soybean cargoes. India, meanwhile, has purchased a record amount of U.S. soy oil. On the geopolitical front, China has signaled a willingness to resume U.S. soybean purchases, contingent on the removal of U.S. tariffs. President Trump, rather than lifting tariffs, has indicated plans to support U.S. farmers through additional subsidy payments funded by tariff revenue. At the same time, new tariffs were announced yesterday targeting heavy-duty trucks and kitchen cabinets.

Looking ahead, market participants are beginning to position for next Tuesday’s quarterly grain stocks report. While this report doesn’t typically generate as much volatility as a WASDE update, it remains a key data point for supply estimates. Traders are also closely watching the ongoing standoff in Washington over government funding. Without a resolution, a shutdown is expected next week, and as of now, no negotiations are scheduled.

Live and feeder cattle futures dropped sharply again yesterday, as box beef prices continued their tumbling, with yesterday again choice off $4.42 in afternoon reporting and select dropping $2.97. For the month, the choice cutout is off $43/CWT. There is a perception that Pres. Trump will be visiting with Pres. Lulu of Brazil next week, and in their conversations, they may be able to strike a deal that lowers the 50% tariff on many products or at least reduce it significantly. This has futures pricing in the prospect, even though no hard evidence exists that a phone call has been scheduled. But then again, that’s how futures markets work, they trade anticipation of something, and then we call it “sell the rumor, buy the fact” after it becomes a reality.

US Sec. Rollins announced that there will be no checks to producers to help expand the herd, that was only a rumor. What they are looking into is helping open up more land access and price mitigation opportunities. October feeder cattle futures are $11 discount to the feeder index for Thursday, which was $364.10. The current wave structure that live and feeder cattle prices are in is a “C” wave, which can offer mild bounces, but the persistence of the wave has certainly turned lower for the next few weeks.