Grain prices spent most of the evening higher, with wheat and corn eventually turning slightly softer at the end of the morning session, while meal posted solid gains on further yield reports that continue to diminish. Also, Farm Journal conducted a survey and found that disease in dry conditions was very evident in revealing a national average crop yield of 178.5 BPA. That would be around a bushel lower than last year and dramatically shakeup carry out thoughts. Of course, this is just a sample, and not the true yield, but it’s indicative of what is taking place in the harvest, and why corn and soybeans have turned higher during the gut slot of harvest.

There are also thoughts we may finally see some Chinese demand, although the US did not load out any soybeans to China in September. Trade tensions with China have cooled, which is favorable for soybean demand hopes. Trade is starting to focus more on domestic soybean demand, and this is providing support. Drier growing conditions in Brazil are also offering the soy complex support.

Gold has now posted nine consecutive weeks of higher closes and is up again this morning by over $60.00. Global financial instability is pushing investors into safe-haven assets, and gold is clearly benefiting. This rally is beginning to spill over into the ag markets as well, with many agricultural contracts appearing undervalued in comparison.

The U.S. government remains shut down with no end in sight, and it's becoming increasingly likely that the November WASDE report may also be delayed or canceled. If so, the final USDA numbers in January may be the next viable opportunity for any major U.S. production revisions.

While field reports suggest smaller corn and soybean crops across several regions, the futures markets await official confirmation through government data before reacting more aggressively. Until then, trade will be heavily influenced by external drivers, including geopolitical developments and weather-based crop updates, which will likely shape how we close out today’s session.

Friday was a sharply lower close for live cattle with feeder cattle limit down after comments from Pres. Trump Thursday afternoon that the he was working on a deal to help lower beef prices. Classic Trump talk is say something, without a plan actually set up, and move on without much result in the near term. What we do know is the cash trade ended last week’s solid with live trade higher in all regions. The North was $6-7 higher for the week at $240-241 with dressed sales $9-10 higher at $3 72-373. The South picked up $5 and traded at $240 with the early outlook mixed this week on tight supplies.

Last week’s cattle slaughter rose to a 5-week high at 560,000 head but was still 40,000 head less than last year. Box beef prices have confirmed their seasonal low and were also moving higher last week. The cattle trade was overbought and at contract highs when caught by the surprise announcement, which created the sharp reaction on Friday. Key support is just below live cattle at 240 that needs to hold to maintain positive momentum, while November feeder cattle need to hold 368.00+ slippage to maintain positive momentum. Closing below those key levels two sessions in a row would indicate a significant price top occurred last Thursday. Until then the market awaits further news on any prospect of Argentine beef receiving preferential treatment to be imported into the US.