Grain futures are trading firmer again this morning, which runs counter to expectations given the strong harvest pace across much of the country. What’s driving the market higher is a steady stream of yield reports showing corn and soybean crops falling short of USDA projections. That’s encouraging risk buyers to step back into the market, especially as interior basis levels firm across multiple regions.

Wheat futures are also benefiting from weather concerns. Dryness in the Southern Plains is stressing early-planted winter wheat, and while rain is forecast for next week, traders are adding premium in case those rains miss. Export demand is also helping, with milling wheat and feed corn reportedly making their way into the world market.

Interior basis continues to show strength despite ongoing harvest. A few areas are reporting softer corn basis where on-farm or commercial storage is tightening, but that’s largely expected for this point in the season. Soybean harvest is now estimated to be over 75 percent complete, and corn is above 50 percent nationwide.

As we head into the weekend, all eyes will be on how the market handles any late-session harvest pressure. Friday often brings added movement, but if corn and soybeans can maintain current strength into the close, it would cap a notable technical week. Specifically, if December corn closes above 424.6 (current day session high), it will produce an outside-week higher close, no small feat considering harvest is only halfway complete.

Cattle futures may be set for a lower to sharply lower opening this morning following a 10-day gain for December cattle. Yesterday afternoon, the Trump administration announced that it is working to lower beef prices in the country, saying it thinks they have a deal. Yesterday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Brazilian counterparts working on tariff deals that were mainly focused on coffee but could spill over to beef. No details were implied, but Trump has obviously seen blow-back on high beef prices since instituting the 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, which included beef.

The cash feeder index yesterday posted another record high of $375.10, a gain of $0.63. Meanwhile, we did see some negotiated fed cattle get underway yesterday. Live sales in the north were quoted $6 higher at $240, the highest price in six weeks. Dressed sales were quoted at $372-373, a gain of $9-10 on the week. Box beef prices were slightly lower, with choice off $0.37 and select down $0.23.

It goes without saying that cattle futures have become exceptionally overbought given the vertical rise of the last two weeks. The question is how much gets checked this morning without any details of what the Trump administration referenced Thursday afternoon when it said it had a fix for beef prices. Once these live cattle breached the 241.25 range, which set the present continuous vertical rise in motion, this sets 240-241 as initial chart-based support. November feeder cattle, which will see the January contract take over spot action next week for the continuation chart, show 370 as the breakout point that should initially offer chart-based support as well.