🟢 Soybeans Higher, Corn Mixed, Wheat Weaker
Soybeans posted solid overnight gains while corn futures traded mixed and wheat softened. The strength in soybeans continues to be tied to improving demand signals, while wheat futures remain under pressure from global supply competition.

Fundamentally, not much has changed across the grain complex, but outside market influences, especially geopolitical tension, are shaping trade. Concerns over US–China trade tariffs remain at the forefront. The lack of clarity on US policy toward other key trading partners is also raising trader caution. Harvest progress has soybeans 75% completed, with corn very near the 50% mark.

🔩 Demand Support: Record September Crush
Wednesday’s record crush total for September gave the soybean market a clear boost. The monthly NOPA crush came in 9 million bushels over trade expectations, a notable bullish surprise. What’s especially interesting is that soy oil stocks did not build, despite the strong processing pace—suggesting that end-product demand remains robust. As more domestic crush facilities come online, this consumption trend is expected to continue. The takeaway is, even if China isn’t buying, other demand is clearly alive and well.

🛢 Ethanol Data and Harvest Trends
Traders are awaiting this morning’s weekly ethanol production report, with expectations for a slight week-over-week increase. Ethanol margins remain workable in many regions, and steady production is anticipated as the US corn harvest progresses.

Harvest yield reports continue to come in highly variable. While a few producers are seeing better-than-expected results, most yields are coming in below early expectations, and in many cases, matching last year’s levels. This has only strengthened basis across the country.

💰 Basis Remains Firm as Farmers Hold Grain
Despite harvest pressure, basis values are firming—a clear signal that grain movement remains light. Many farmers are holding grain back due to low cash prices and potential government support payments. Selling interest is minimal, and if this continues, end-users may be forced to push basis further to keep supply pipelines flowing.

🔄 Feeder Cattle Consolidate but Stay Strong
Wednesday brought a brief pause to the relentless rally in the feeder cattle market. Prices dipped multiple times during the session, but feeders ultimately clawed their way back to a respectable close. This consolidation came after several days of sharp gains.
The cash feeder index added another $1.45, setting yet another all-time high of $374.47. Futures may have cooled temporarily, but the tone remains firm.

Live Cattle Still Point Higher
The live cattle market is still leaning bullish. Negotiated cash trade is slow to develop, but initial asking prices in the South are firm at $240, up $5 to $8 from last week. Given the October board’s strength, packers may have no choice but to pay up.
The December live cattle chart continues to trend higher, and feeder futures, despite the brief pause, remain on a trajectory best described as a rocket ship.

🏭 Slaughter Numbers: Historic Lows
Wednesday’s cattle slaughter totaled 122,000 head, bringing the week-to-date to 348,000 head. That’s up 13,000 head from last week, but still 21,000 fewer than the same period last year. October mid-month total slaughter stands at just 1.224 million head, 97,000 fewer than last year, and notably the lowest mid-October tally since USDA began reporting in 1999.

🥩 Boxed Beef Market Trends
Choice boxed beef added another $2/cwt Wednesday, while Select dropped a little over $1/cwt, further widening the Choice-Select spread. The rib primal—which saw a quick correction—is bouncing again, as holiday demand ramps up.
📌 The rib is now trading above $620/cwt, and traders expect it to continue climbing as end users secure holiday supply.

🌐 Geopolitical Notes
President Trump’s administration is meeting today with Brazilian President Lula’s team in ongoing tariff negotiations. Trade reps from both nations are reported to be working behind the scenes on broader ag trade cooperation, potentially impacting future beef and corn trade flows.