🌾 Morning Market Outlook

Corn, soybeans, and wheat are all trading lower to start the day, with soybeans leading the declines. The tone is being set by escalating tariff tensions between the US and China. The US is planning to impose a $50.00/metric ton fee on China-related vessels beginning tomorrow. In response, China has announced plans to match the surcharge on all US-related vessels

These moves are creating additional logistical hurdles that may end up impacting trade more than tariffs alone. There is talk that the White House may walk back the policy altogether, but no official change has been made yet.

Soybeans are also under pressure from cheaper Brazilian offers and a weaker energy complex. While wheat and corn have held relatively steady in recent sessions, today’s trade is drifting without much fresh support. An initial pop higher occurred last night as Pres. Trump said we will end importing Used Cooking Oil from China. The thing is with the 1it25% tariff very little cooking oil is coming in now anyway.

🏛️ Government Shutdown Continues

The US government remains closed with no sign of immediate resolution. As a result:

• October WASDE remains unreleased.
• NOPA Crush for September is still expected today.
• Export flash sales and trade data remain unavailable.

Trade is operating without its usual flow of government reports, and this data void continues to hinder full price discovery.

🌱 Harvest & Cash Market Notes

Harvest is progressing across much of the Corn Belt:

• Soybean harvest is in later stages, and yields continue to track below expectations.
• Corn harvest is accelerating, but field-drying issues persist in some areas.
• Interior basis levels are firming despite harvest pressure, as many farmers remain disengaged from marketing.
  • Corn basis in the WCB is up.
  • Soybean basis in the ECB has firmed up to 15 cents.
  • Some western soybean bids have recovered by as much as 40 cents from recent lows.

A significant share of the bushels moving now are pre-sold. If the White House proceeds with a $12–13 billion farm subsidy package, even less farmer selling may follow.

📉 Global Market Influences

• Russia raised its wheat crop forecast by 600,000 metric tons, and favorable South American growing conditions are keeping wheat under pressure.
• Brazil’s soybean crop continues to progress despite early dryness; forecasts now suggest relief rains in the northern and central regions.
• NOPA Crush Estimate: 186.3 million bushels, a modest drop from August as plants prepared for new crop supplies.

💬 Watchlist

• Government negotiations—any shift could restore data flow and possibly affect market sentiment.
• Interior basis trends—particularly in soybeans—will reveal nearby demand shifts.
• Brazilian weather maps—timing of planting progress and early-season rainfall matters.
• Trade policy rhetoric—potential easing of tariffs could reignite interest from key importers.

🚀 Momentum Builds in Cattle Markets

Cattle futures surged to another round of new contract highs on Tuesday, continuing their relentless climb. Feeder cattle led the charge once again, notching consistent $4–5 daily gains and settling above $380. The cash feeder index followed suit, jumping $4.02 to a new all-time high of $373.02.

Live cattle also posted gains, and the outlook remains firm this morning. Early asking prices in the Southern Plains are being quoted around $240, which would be $5 to $8 higher than last week’s cash trade. The tone is bullish heading into the week’s negotiated sales.

📈 Premiums Turn Historic in Feeders

Perhaps the most notable development is the sharp reversal in feeder cattle futures spreads. Just weeks ago, contracts were trading at discounts to the index—now they’re showing historic premiums.

• The October feeder cattle contract, set to expire at the end of the month, is trading $7 over the index, a rare divergence from the typical $1–$2 range.
• This rapid re-pricing reflects both short-covering and aggressive bullish positioning, as traders adjust to the tight supply outlook and resilient demand for replacements.    

🌍 International Watch: US–Brazil Beef Diplomacy?

Rumors continue to circulate that US–Brazil trade representatives are holding backchannel talks. President Trump and President Lula of Brazil are both scheduled to attend the APAC summit at the end of the month, raising speculation of potential beef-related agreements or trade announcements.

Given Brazil’s importance as a major global beef supplier and the ongoing need for tight import control in the US, any developments here could have significant implications for future market structure and supply chain strategy.