This morning, we are starting out with a mixed trade. Corn and wheat are finding traction for a turnaround on Tuesday, while soybeans bumped Monday’s lows, looking for stability above 10.00.

Corn continues to be the best-performing grain contract, as we are now seeing flash sales picking up again daily, as US corn remains the best buy in the world market. Current corn demand is up 68% from last year and is the second largest on record. Everybody keeps saying that demand will falter, but if so, when? If it doesn’t, and the corn crop gets lowered again, by January, we will start seeing our current corn carryout decline to 1.8 billion bu if not lower. Let’s see who’s in the flash sales for corn today.

The soy complex remains the weak leg of the market, with pressure coming from the Argentine suspension of export taxes. This will make Argentine commodities cheaper in the global market, especially soybeans and soy products. The question now is whether part of the reason for cutting these taxes is the quality of Argentine soy products after crushing low-grade soybeans from other South American soybean growers. Early reports indicate 10 Argentine soybean vessels were sold on this tax suspension.

US yields are not coming in as high as expected, but trade seems willing to wait for official USDA adjustments before shifting positions. We will soon start to see trade get positioned for next week’s quarterly stocks data that will be released on the 30th.

Crude bounced again off the 61.50 range, which was challenged on Monday. Today, the oil is focused on more successful refinery strikes from drones flying from Ukraine into Russia.

Live and feeder cattle futures were sharply higher yesterday, with deferred feeder cattle from November forward all closing up the 9.25 limit. Because of this, we will have expanded margins and limits today that will not be utilized. Of course, the big news that pushed feeders' limit up yesterday, as reported to you yesterday morning, is that a New World screwworm was found less than 70 miles from the US border in Nuevo León, Mexico. This took had the feeder market ripping up all the discounts in the 2026 contracts, as the border is now not likely to get opened up this winter or next spring. Meanwhile, the cash feeder index lost $1.85 on Monday to be at $358.78, putting the feeder cattle contracts now at a premium to cash. It’s expected that the cash feeder index will mark some gains this week.

Look for the 2025 feeder cattle contracts to find resistance at or near 365, with deferred feeder cattle again being the stronger leg of the cattle trade today. Spot live cattle October and December should now go mostly unaffected in today’s action, which should be more neutral, as no intended Mexican feeder cattle were going to be in the 3rd and 4th quarter cash trade. The live board is now equals to the cash trade in December and February contracts.