Corn and soybeans are showing strength heading into the weekend, while wheat trades in a narrow, mixed range. The overall tone in the market is being shaped by collective trade positioning after a week of volatile price action. An increasing flow of crop updates has made fund managers more cautious, particularly regarding their short exposure in corn. There is growing sentiment that this year’s U.S. corn crop may end up no larger than last year’s, which would present challenges given the current pace of demand. However, the market remains reluctant to fully price in any balance sheet revisions until USDA officially lowers yield estimates.

In addition to yield concerns, crop quality is now coming under scrutiny for both corn and soybeans. This added uncertainty is making traders more cautious and contributing to firmer price action.

On the demand side, China’s lack of soybean purchases stands out as the only major shortfall. While China has yet to book significant U.S. soybeans, that doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t. President Trump and President Xi are scheduled to speak at 8:00 AM ET today, and while the primary focus is expected to be on technology topics like TikTok, there is hope that agricultural trade will be discussed. The possibility of a framework agreement emerging from the talks is on the table if discussions go well.

For today’s session, updated yield reports and the outcome of U.S.–China discussions are expected to be the primary drivers of price discovery across grain markets. Any comments that occur on Truth Social about today’s meeting between Trump and Xi, we will watch for any kind of a spark that relations are thawing with the prospects of China buying before year-end.

After a very volatile session with large swings throughout the day, live and feeder cattle futures closed higher. October cattle struggled in the morning near 230 and found support to close higher late in the session. The feeder index picked up $1.26 and $326.62, which puts it $4.00 above the September feeder cattle contract. On Thursday, negotiated sales picked up with Iowa dressed sales quoted $3-9 lower at $368-374. Meanwhile, Nebraska was off $6 at $3 70. Texas and Kansas received quotes at $240, which was steady with last week on a light test. Box beef again was off $2.37 on choice, putting their losses for the week at $14, while select Thursday was also down sharply by $5.06, putting their weekly losses at $17. Over the last 11 days, box beef has dropped from $30 to $30/CWT.

Live and feeder cattle futures contracts on Thursday closed against recent down trending resistance. Further strength by another $1.00 on cattle would create the first rally above prior highs since peaking on August 27. At 2 o’clock today is the September COF report, with On Feed estimates at 99% of a year ago, Placements at 91%, and Marketings at 87%. Both live and feeder cattle prices are almost steady with last Friday’s closes with yesterday’s settlements.