Soybeans are showing strength this morning, while corn is steady. Wheat is having penny losses, with Chicago wheat making a new contract low. CONAB released its final crop estimates, and soybeans came in below the average trade guess, supporting soybeans this morning.

Today’s session will feature final positioning ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. No significant changes are expected to balance sheets, with most analysts expecting to see corn and soybeans stocks trimmed and a minimal build in wheat stocks.

A story of note that is starting to become a concern is the dropping water levels on US rivers. Water levels are quickly receding and expected to fall all month. Given long-range weather models, we may not see water level improvement before the fall closes. Not only would this be a major blow to exports, but for bringing inputs north. Dry weather will also speed up harvest, causing some interior logistics issues. Basis will react accordingly, but for how long is uncertain. Farmers are showing no signs of selling, and commercials are preparing for ground piles. A buyer hoping for big fall deliveries might be disappointed this year.

As yesterday’s ethanol data showed, we are seeing record ethanol production. Weekly ethanol production was at 7.7 Mil BBL, up 3% from last week. Meanwhile, ethanol stocks are the lowest of the 2025 season, with US harvests picking up speed soon. We are also seeing ethanol exports pick up as well.

Live and feeder cattle posted a moderate recovery yesterday, though feeder cattle had seen deferred contracts from November forward close lower on the day, while October feeder cattle barely hung on to 350 by the bell. Today’s trading action will be closely watched, as buying needs to surface again in a significant manner today to make Tuesday’s sharp losses look like a technical accident, or else continual liquidation will develop as the fear of a top has occurred.

September feeder cattle found support being more significant tied to the cash feeder index, which was off $0.39 yesterday at $365.47. Discounts are again being pushed into the feeder cattle complex against the index. The cash index has stalled over the last three weeks but is holding at record prices. Live cattle cash trends look lower this week, which is starting to reflect a trend. It is not surprising, as there is seasonality for the cash beef trade to soften into September once Labor Day restocking has finished.