Corn firmed late in the night session, while soybeans and wheat were again under pressure from a lack of bullish news in the overnight session. Much of the news we see in the market is simply updates to stories we already know, which has greatly diminished market interest. Concerns over the state of the US economy are also weighing on markets as we are now 14 days away from a potential government shutdown. The government has been able to avoid these in the past, but analysts feel this month may be more difficult, given the current inter-party fighting in Washington. These concerns have driven gold to new all-time highs with safe haven buying and further lessened interest in commodities.

The trade is also waiting for actual US yield data, as more doubt about the current USDA estimates. Many private analysts have trimmed both corn and soybean yields, but the market wants firm numbers, not estimates, especially at this time of the year. We did have a flash sale on soy meal yesterday, but it has been nearly two weeks since large sales were reported. The lack of progress in a trade deal is also impacting trade negatively, especially with China, where no new crop sales have been made. However, funds have trimmed short positions, providing underlying market support, as there is a lack of outright bearish news, other than the repeated no Chinese buying story.

Crush margins are becoming a problem, pulling soybeans off the recent rally. In the last 10 days, margins have declined from $2.20/bu to $1.55. With meal under pressure after soybean oil’s recent break, commercials are hedging off their inventory.

Argentina FOB corn values have softened recently and could start to slow strong US export sales numbers. Export sales are delayed until Friday morning due to the Labor Day holiday. We are now seeing Argentina’s corn become the world’s cheapest at $198/MT, with US Gulf values now at $204. Also, Ukrainian corn for November is being panic dumped into the world market at $1.20/Bu over the December CBOT futures. That compares to a $2.35/Bu premium in mid-August.

Showers were seen in northern IL, IN, and OH late on Wednesday, and confidence is growing that more rain will impact OH over the next two days. Otherwise, a few more chilly mornings lie ahead, but frost is not indicated across the Northern Plains from now into the weekend, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s.

Live cattle closed under pressure yesterday, with a softer start anticipated this morning. Some light negotiated trade developed on Wednesday, where Texas and Kansas saw small numbers trade at $242, which was steady with last week. Some light trade in the dressed market showed up in Nebraska at $383, $2 lower than last week, while sales in Iowa were at $385, off a dollar. Box beef did show a jump in values yesterday, recovering from Tuesday’s losses, and had seen choice up $2.59 while select rose $1.56.

The cash market remains resilient, especially with Brazilian beef imports literally off-limits, but the board has been reflecting a shaky tone since making a high last Wednesday at 242 for October cattle and just under 370 for October feeder cattle. The market continues to find willing sellers on bounces, implying last week may have been a wave count 3 high, and the market wants to liquidate in a wave 4 fashion for a while.