The grain trade is starting out with a firm start for the week. The trade is digesting the smaller yield estimates from the Pro Farmer crop tour than what we had from the latest USDA WASDE report. This reduction has only elevated market disagreements on US crop potential. While total crop size will likely fall short of the current USDA estimate, by how much is unknown.

The market is starting to focus more on commodity demand, especially for corn. US cumulative new crop corn sales over 2x last year at 16.7 mmt compared to last year’s 7.9 mmt. New crop corn demand now within 2 mmt of the all-time record for sales. Soybean demand is also good, but the lack of Chinese business remains a negative factor. Fresh news is somewhat limited to start the week. First notice day for September contracts is this coming Friday, and this will likely be a factor in the week’s trade, along with weather, trade updates, and early harvest reports from the Southern US.

China indicated on Saturday that protectionism and tariffs are affecting its buying interest. China took a shot at the Trump administration and farmers in these comments, and why they imposed duties on US soybeans at 23% earlier this year. This prevents Chinese crushers and importers from securing beans from the US. It’s possible China can avoid buying US beans for now but it will likely have to show up in November and December to fill its needs.

This week maintains a rather cool and dry Midwest weather forecast with improving rain chances after the first of the month. The Central Plains and Delta should get rain this week, with showers expanding northward next week. Temperatures will be extremely fall-like, with 40s and 50s overnight, and daytime highs will be in the 60s and 70s.

Friday’s cattle on feed report showed a tight on-feed number of 98%, but that was due to an uptick in placements by 3% more than the average trade guess. Placement number can be spun either positive or negative, because that would be considered a positive price, as with a finite amount of feeder cattle available, there’s just that many fewer to place the next month. Either way, we might expect a softer start this morning on feeder cattle due to the upside push in the last hour of trade.

There is concern that a human who had traveled to Central America contracted the screwworm, as the US Department of Health and Human Services reported. Since the cattle market elevated so much last week, this could prompt a softer start. 359-360 will be initial support on weakness.

Last week’s feeder cattle index jumped $4 and is at a record $3.50. Feeders are showing a premium of $10.00 to the August contract, which expires at the end of this week and is cash settled. Last week’s negotiated fed cattle trade was higher in all areas with the north higher by $1-2 at $245-246. Meanwhile, the South was up $5 on the week at $240.

Choice box beef gained $7 for the week and select was $13 higher. The monthly cold storage report was released on Friday, with numbers primarily as expected. As of July 31st the US had 397.82 million pounds of beef in freezers, 1% less than June but 1% more than July 2024. Frozen pork supplies totaled 404.58 million pounds, 3% less than in June and 11% less than a year ago. The US pork belly supply came in at 31.7 million pounds, a 28% decline from June and 25% less than a year ago. Total US

Today could be a bumpy ride for cattle, as nothing but positive news fed this market last week. After gaining $15 on feeder cattle, they are looking for any reason to get corrected. Prior resistance turned support on the October feeder cattle is at 348-349.