This morning’s grain trade is mostly lower, with corn turning softer after a four-day bounce, while beans are also starting to relax. Soybeans are finding support from a soybean meal market that continues to see the exodus of a massive index short position caught on the wrong side of history. The supply of soybeans has been reduced by 80 Mil Bu courtesy of WASDE.

Fresh news is relatively light this morning, with interest focused on the Pro Farmer crop tour. For the most part, the tour is finding good crops, but the ultimate question is if they are good enough to reach the USDA’s targeted yields. More traders are starting to claim the US corn yield is too high, but by how much is the wild card. The most common finding in corn fields is tip back, which is credited to elevated overnight temperatures during ear fill. There are also signs that pollination had some issues this year. As these reports spread, the possibility of reaching current USDA production estimates declines. Weekly crop ratings mainly were steady and losing market reaction as we rapidly approach the fall harvest.

It is interesting to hear more reports that the US corn crop is maturing early, with some producers claiming the crop is about two weeks ahead of the normal maturity pace. One has to wonder if this is impacting crop quality. While the current market lacks bullish news to attract buyers, nobody is willing to sell the market right now, and this is providing support.

Pro Farmer put the South Dakota corn yield at 174.2 bushels per acre compared to last year’s 156.51 bpa and the five-year average of 144.13 bpa. The USDA currently has the yield at 168 bpa. History shows that Pro Farmer tends to overestimate the South Dakota yield by 5.3 bpa.

The tour pegged the Ohio corn yield at 185.69 bpa compared to last year’s 183.29 bpa and the five-year 180.47 bpa average. Historically, the USDA underestimates the Ohio yield by 4.6 bpa. The USDA Ohio corn yield estimate is at 196 bpa.

Cash basis bids for Canadian canola and US soybeans have seen their bids fall away as concerns that Chinese demand will be nonexistent in September, along with October. The Chinese trade deal that would prompt snap buying from China could be delayed until the President. Trump meets with President. Xi of China at the end of October.

An interesting twist on the potential ending of the Russian/Ukrainian war is that the Russian ruble is currently rallying in anticipation of a possible settlement. As the Russian ruble rallies, it raises its wheat prices, ultimately taking pressure off US values but simultaneously putting pressure on oil prices as sanctions against Russia would be lifted

It was a year ago today that the moisture shut off in the Midwest and caused a massive reduction in yield potential for corn and soybeans from the USDA as we got into late fall and the surprise October crop report. A cool/dry weather forecast is anticipated for the Midwest beyond today, with some light scattered showers offered for the East and Southern Midwest. Rain chances are noted after August 28 as the Gulf moisture pushes northward into the Midwest. Better rains are needed across the S Midwest/Delta, where dryness is noted. A cool drive forecast appears in place for the Central US, where temperatures will average 3-6° below normal later this week, and the cool trend will last into early September. Heat will be pushed into the Southwest to the Southern Plains.

Live and feeder cattle futures found their footing early yesterday morning and again started advancing higher, with feeder cattle leading the way to new contract highs. Live cattle, meanwhile, stopped just short of new contract highs with deferred live cattle tagging new ones by a minor amount. Yesterday's cash feeder index declined to $3.58 and is at $342.17, again putting feeder cattle at a premium.

Boxed beef prices saw gains again yesterday, with choice up $3.67 at $404.24, while the select jumped $6.38 higher at $377.14. It was reported that the Packers bought 36,857 head for 1-14 day delivery last week and another 22,182 head for 15-30 day delivery. Negotiated volumes are at a record low. Live cattle futures are up against initial resistance that needs to be overcome quickly or risk a retreat, while feeder cattle have broken out and need to further their advance, which may also be met with profit-taking on the charts.