This morning’s trade is driven mainly by final positioning ahead of today’s WASDE release. Expectations are for increases in both corn and soybean production, as well as higher ending stocks. From July's estimate, corn output is projected to rise by about 300 million bushels, while soybean production is up roughly 35 million bushels. There has been little discussion about demand changes on the balance sheets, despite new crop corn commitments running more than double last year’s pace. However, fresh reports of crop issues are surfacing, adding uncertainty to the estimates. While crop conditions are still strong, harvest is far from complete, and extended forecasts are calling for above-average temperatures across the Corn Belt. It’s worth remembering that late-season heat has taken the edge off strong crops in the past, and some producers are already reporting, “It’s a good crop, but we’ve lost the top.”

Beyond the WASDE-related positioning, fresh market-moving news is limited. Last week’s crop ratings slipped one point for both corn and soybeans, a move that came as no surprise. The market is now shifting its focus away from condition ratings and toward actual harvest data. Corn harvest has begun in the southern states, but more progress is needed before reliable yield figures emerge. Meanwhile, limited selling from South American producers continues to lend support to U.S. export opportunities.

Soybeans are softening back down as Pres. Trump’s call for China to quadruple their soybean purchases is just a comment, and as far as any proof in the pudding offer seeking, that is quiet. So the bean trade again puts its focus back on the supply side of the WASDE crop report number this morning if China fails to materialize in the next two weeks to show up as a buyer on a goodwill mission to buy beans, they will likely not do anything until negotiations are completed sometime at the end of October. This is when they will see bean coverage into China from mid-November through January.

Another negative for soybeans today is canola, down $40.00/MT, as China announced a preliminary antidumping duty on Canadian canola. This is a fresh blow to trade relations between these two countries. A year ago, Canada imposed tariffs on Chinese EV vehicles coming into Canada. The new 75% duty and Canadian canola will halt shipments to the world’s largest importer, China. This has bean oil down $1.00 as more Canadian canola oil enters the US.

We will get the WASDE August crop report at 11:00 a.m. CT. The average guess on corn is 184.3 BPA, with soybeans at 52.9 BPA. We will then enjoy the Pro Farmer crop tour August 18-21 to see how close USDA survey results are to today’s information. Remember, today’s data from the USDA is not about boots in the field; it is about producer surveys and NVDI data.

Midwest weather forecasts remain cooler, with near-to-below-normal rain forecast for the next 10 days. Ridge-riding storms should prevail across the Central Midwest, with improving chances of rain across the Delta and Ohio Valley at the end of the week. Sustained heat is lacking in the current modeling, with Midwest high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s through August 18 and then cooler temperatures in the 70s-80s from August 19 through August 25.

After a volatile early session yesterday, trading both higher and then sharply lower, with moving average support providing a recovery lift late in the session, feeders and cattle prices were able to close slightly higher. Support in feeders came from the cash feeder index jumping $3.83 to a record $341.04.

Last week’s negotiated cattle trade was lower with the 5-area average live steer price off $1 at $2 42, with the average dressed price $to lower at $3 81. The Packers picked up 38,568 head for 1-14 day delivery, with another 17,223 head at 15-30 day delivery. This reflects a volume of 14,000 head lower from last week and 20,000 fewer than a year ago. Last week’s technical action on the board implies a significant high watermark that was set. Look for recovery rallies to meet resistance at the various Fibonacci recovery numbers. For September feeder cattle, 344 and 347.50 will be the targeted resistance numbers.