This morning’s grain trade is mixed with wheat maintaining yesterday’s gains while corn and soybeans drift slightly from yesterday’s higher closing on demand. Export sales were well above expectations for corn at over three MMTs, while wheat exceeded expectations at 737,000 MTs, and beans came in near their high side of expectations. The high mantle for the highest yield guess for next week’s WASDE crop report is held by StoneX at 188.1 BPA on corn and 53.75 on beans while other average analysts cluster into the 183-184 range on corn and near 53 for beans.

As China has been active in buying South American soybeans, it has pushed values well above US Gulf and Pacific Northwest pricing, pushing other nontraditional customers to the US. China has truly become the ”Bull in a China shop”; meanwhile, China has also stated it will keep buying Russian crude oil regardless of any US tariff threats. This week, Trump put tariffs on India for their purchase of Russian crude. Trump has promised to do the same thing to China if they do not hold purchases. He has set a deadline today for China to decide on Russian oil purchases. Trump has yet to ratify the 90-day extension of 55% Chinese tariffs. The way China has been acting and not buying any US ag products, it would not be a surprise if next week he lets the tariffs jump right back to 145% on China, and that all trade comes to a halt. That is if he doesn’t do another TACO (Trump always chickens out).

Next Tuesday, August 12, is the August WASDE and crop production report. The average yield guess for corn is 184.2, about 1.2 bushels above what the USDA guessed last year at this time, and was 4 bushels too high. The soybean yield estimate is 52.9 BPA, whereas the USDA stated 53 BPA last year. Any acreage reduction due to preventive plant will not likely be accounted for until September, so the USDA’s number on Tuesday will be heavily scrutinized when the national Pro Farmer tour gets underway August 12-21.

Rain chances improve this weekend with some areas in the Western Midwest getting anywhere from 1-3.00” of rainfall. Varied temperatures, along with some extreme heat, will occur, but the heat does not last. High temperatures next week will be in the 80s to the low 90s.

Up, up, and away yesterday continued for cattle futures, as it’s anticipated that the South will capture $240, which will be another $4-5 higher than last week, while the North captures $250 for today's pricing. Box beef values were sharply higher again on Thursday, with the cutout on choice jumping $4.08 higher and select picking up $2.39.

August live cattle yesterday scored at a record high close of $238.75 while August feeder cattle scored a record high of $348.65. September feeders breached 350 in the final minutes of the settlement. Reflecting a short covering pinch into the close. The cash feeder index yesterday gained $0.76 to a record high of $336.97. The cattle board is now on a runaway, as the Brazilian tariffs have choked off 25% of our beef imports, with Australia incapable of replacing all of them. Prices must rise to the value that chokes off demand, likely creating demand destruction. The consumer must change their buying habits in the current state of the cattle market with beef availability pinched.