Grains are mixed this morning, with wheat turning slightly higher on a weakening US dollar that continues to soften from Friday’s jobs number. French milling wheat again is firm this morning, up $2.25 a metric ton at $196.75. This will likely cause interest rates to be pushed lower this fall, putting downward pressure on the dollar. Soybean oil was also weak overnight, hanging on soybean values, as OPEC, in its weekend meeting, decided to raise crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September.

The August 12 USDA WASDE data with crop production will prompt private estimates to propagate over the coming week. First up will be StoneX, which will likely produce a high side yield. Rather than field-based guesses, his will be solely on crop condition reports, which should start to soften seasonally starting today. Look for StoneX to produce yield above 186 BPA on corn and soybeans above 52.5 BPA.

Dry weather is forecasted for the Midwest this week, while showers occur in the northern plains and southeastern US. Rains are anticipated to return to the Midwest this weekend, and rain chances will be offered almost daily over the ensuing week.

Last Thursday, we saw a round of new contract highs in live and feeder cattle before reversing violently, creating technical damage on the charts. Friday’s mild recovery hooked itself to the live cash trade, which was still steady-better on the week. Live sales in the north were at $245-247, which still reflected a gain of $1- 3 for the week, while live sales in the South were at $235-237, a gain of $4-6 in some areas.

Box beef values continued to soften last week, choice gave up $6.77, and select lost $5.63. Slaughter margins losses are building and are at their worst since the last cattle cycle high in January 2015. Unless box beef values show recovery, the Packers will be highly reluctant to fill needs this week on any higher cash trade. Last week’s poor job numbers, which were also adjusted lower for May and June as well, could start to reflect consumer demand shifting to cheaper alternatives.