A mostly softer trade overnight with beans and wheat in the lows of where they ended July, while corn maintains moderate strength off the July lows. The calendar flipped to August, but so far, it has not brought buyers to the market. The US tariffs went into effect at midnight, with all US trade partners seeing tariffs. This was not unexpected, but now, the trade wants to see if there is any retaliation.

Weather forecasts this morning have changed a little, with mostly benign conditions across much of the US. Trade continues to collect crop damage reports from across the Corn Belt with some rather sizable issues, mainly in the Upper Plains. Again, until trade can see proof of lost production, the current mindset will not change. We also need to see China return to our export market.

A Chinese importer booked more Argentine meals overnight, putting a little pressure on that complex. Unless the managed money crowd surfaces, we may be in for another lethargic session to end the week.

This morning’s July job payrolls fell way below estimates, including massive revisions from prior months. The BLS reported that job numbers showed just a build of 73,000, far below the 104,000 estimate. Also, revisions were made both in May and June. May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000. June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000. The dollar has stalled out at 100.00 and has tumbled 1%, on the now likely interest rate cut coming in September by at least .25%.

Corn exports have been strong while soybeans and wheat have been as good as can be expected in the current environment. With the tariffs being enacted today to countries that are out of compliance with the US, the grain trade will watch to see how exports continue over the next two weeks ahead of the August 12 USDA crop production report. Canada's tariffs on non-USMCA goods will be 35% as of today. Switzerland's tariff is 40% and starts on August 7. Trump has yet to announce China’s 90-day extension on current tariffs, which stand at 55%, with the fentanyl tariff included. Meanwhile, China’s reciprocal tariff on US grain and soybeans is 10%.

A cooler and drier forecast will occur across the northern Plains and Midwest over the next 10 days after all the rain that fell in July. Over the next 10 days, Midwest high temperatures look to be in the 70s and 80s and then are anticipated to rise into the lower 90s in the 11-15-day window.

After scoring new contract highs Thursday morning in the feeder cattle complex, the live and feeder cattle trade collapsed with October live cattle trading down the $7.25 limit and October feeder cattle touching the $ $9.25 limit down price before bouncing a dollar into the close. This created an outside day down session feeder cattle, which typically brings in further liquidation from index funds on a significant loss of equity yesterday, not only in the feeder cattle complex but in the stock indexes, which have continued lower this morning. One could say it all started because of profit-taking on the last trading day of the month, but Algo rhythm selling was exacerbated later in the session when the stock market also started to break.

Some negotiated cattle trade did take place yesterday during the break on the board, as southern plains were seen active in the $235-240 range with the basket trading a dressed basis of $ $33-385. This cash trade was seen as steady to $2.00 better, which helped feedlots lift hedges with the stronger basis being provided. Today’s action may likely see further selling on the opening, given that the stock indexes have moved lower again from where they were at the Thursday close for cattle. Chart support on September feeder cattle is in the 326.00-329.00 price pocket. October live cattle has price support in the 220-221 range. Yesterday’s technical damage will likely promote further liquidation, and recovery bounces will now find willing sellers. 335-336 will become new critical resistance on September feeder cattle if that value is attempted on a recovery rally.

Trump's tariffs on Brazil excluded airplanes, airplane equipment, and a few other minor items. At this time, beef and coffee were not added to the exemption list.