The grain trade is softer this morning, with wheat doing the give up, as French milling wheat retreats from yesterday’s gains, and US values follow suit. Meanwhile, corn and soybeans hold a penny loss. Yesterday’s crop ratings had corn dipping 73% from the good to excellent category while soybeans picked up 2% and are now rated 70% good to excellent. The spring wheat crop declined 3% due to dryness in Washington and Montana crops, and is now rated 49% good, excellent.

Today, we will hear about the Chinese extensions for 90 days after Treasury Secretary Bessent and his trade team in Stockholm worked out the details sometime during market hours. It’s anticipated that the tariffs will be extended into mid-November, with President Trump likely meeting President Xi of China at the October 31 APAC meeting in South Korea.

Concerns are developing that the overnight weather in the NW Midwest has seen extreme severe weather and straight-line winds that damaged Southeast Minnesota. Whether this will impact the grain trade again, similar to the 2020 event when Iowa suffered a similar event, is yet to be seen. Damage assessments will be ongoing. Business continues to be announced for grains, with trade seeing flash sales for three consecutive days. Overnight, it’s been reported that South Korea is tendering for 30,000 metric tons of corn. Given recent trends, the US has a good chance of picking up that business.

On Monday, the cattle futures market saw another session of new contract highs, and the cash feeder index climbed $1.10 yesterday, closing at $329.93, a record. Negotiated fed cattle last week did show small gains in price, but this week will be difficult. Estimated slaughter margins have been under pressure for the last several weeks, which could limit gains in the Fed cattle prices this week. Meanwhile, box beef values did pick up strength on Monday, with choice gaining $1.05 and select higher by $1.98.

Deliveries for August futures start next week, and the board is still at a discount to the cash trade. Will the dog catch the car by a sliding cash market, or does the board still advance? August feeders are close to a measured move theory target of 337 and stalled yesterday morning at that price (high of 336.6). Today’s performance will be interesting, but profit-taking could continue after last week’s late surge and Monday’s gap higher trade, which saw at one time unchanged trade that closed the gap, while still recovering and posting a strong settlement.