Futures moved lower overnight, pressured by a lack of fresh developments and light participation ahead of the weekend. Market sentiment remains mixed as crop updates continue to point to the loss of the “top end” yield potential for the US corn crop. However, this adds more uncertainty around overall production and demand. Market reaction is likely to stay muted without a clear reduction in supply, whether through lower yield estimates or acreage revisions from the USDA.

At current price levels, corn is drawing buying interest from importers, though wheat appears to be gaining more traction in global trade. Competitive pricing is one factor, but logistical issues also play a key role. Ongoing problems with Brazil’s transport network limit its export capacity, while strong internal demand is slowing the country’s ability to meet overseas commitments. Argentina is experiencing similar issues, with domestic usage reducing the availability of exportable grain.

These factors generally support US exports, but market participants remain focused on supply concerns and the lack of any major weather threat to crops. Uncertainty around US trade negotiations is another headwind heading into the weekend. Meanwhile, continued strength in the S&P Index—setting new highs each day this week—is drawing speculative capital away from the agricultural space.

The North Dakota Spring Wheat Crop Tour is reporting an estimated yield of 49 BPA, down from last year’s record 54 BPA. This is due to regional dryness, which has contributed to this year’s decline in spring wheat yield. However, the crop has been experiencing cooler temperatures and rain over the past week, which has helped to boost test weights during harvest.

A negative for soybean oil, which is trying to price itself out of the export market, is rumors that China has potentially sold 70-80,000 MTs of soy oil into India for October, November, and December. This would be the first sale of this size between countries that are members of BRIC.

Moderate heat continues across the Plains and Midwest through the weekend, when a much cooler temperature pattern follows. Midwest high temperatures will reach the mid-80s to mid-90s, while southern plains states and Missouri will experience mid-90s to lower 100s. Temperatures in the 70s to 80s return next week and look to be forecasted into the first week of August. Current long-term models do not show heat returning in the 11-15-day forecast, allowing for above-normal rainfall to develop.

Live and feeder cattle futures went into corrective mode yesterday but traded in an inside session when measured against Wednesday’s action despite volatility. After posting new all-time highs on Wednesday, profit-taking and hedging entered ahead of this afternoon’s July COF report and the semi-annual Cattle Inventory Report after the close. The trade is anticipating feed numbers down 1% from a year ago, placements off 2%, and marketings almost 4% lower.

On Thursday, some negotiated cattle trading took place on small numbers in Texas at $231, a dollar higher on the week, while other regions saw small tests near steady money with last week. The July Livestock Slaughter report showed that the June cattle kill was at 96% of last year, on one last working day. The per-day slaughter rate was 91% of last year. They also showed June beef production was off 2% from last year and the lowest since 2015.

Live cattle prices continue to hold up against seasonal price downturns due to extremely tight numbers, but the discounts that continue to be erased are in place out of fear that consumer demand will recoil. So we continue the daily climbing of a wall of worry on price. This looks to continue well into the fall, given that the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2026 prices are all stacked within a dollar of each other, which is nearly 223.