Corn, soybeans, and wheat traded higher for much of the overnight session but slipped into negative territory by the close of night trading. The futures market appears to be losing momentum from bearish news, yet lacks a strong bullish catalyst to spark meaningful buying. The next potential trigger for renewed interest may come with Friday’s WASDE report. While no dramatic revisions are expected to the balance sheets, upward adjustments are possible, particularly for corn demand, where current year-to-date sales have already reached USDA’s full-year projections. Much of today and tomorrow’s activity will likely focus on positioning ahead of the report, though some traders took advantage of the July 4th holiday to do so early.

CONAB (Brazil's form of USDA) will also have a crop report for us Friday morning, but crop sizes there are already mostly known. In the case of corn, it’s a matter of getting it out of the fields and drying it down. Growing yield forecasts in the US for corn in the 184 BPA are now becoming commonplace, with 360 corn becoming a popular topic.

The wildcard is trade deals, with today, July 9, having come without any announcements, we turn our attention to a potential Chinese trade deal in August to change the tide. We need a big demand base built from China, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea to absorb a big corn crop.

Following recent discussions, there’s also an ongoing hope for increased engagement with China. However, the market seems more captivated by the narrative around trade talks than actual follow-through in demand, as daily flash sales have become commonplace. Weather remains a bearish influence, with rainfall now reaching some of the previously driest areas in the Corn Belt. Crop reports continue to indicate generally good, but not outstanding, conditions, adding another layer of uncertainty for market direction. Two states that are liking soil moisture right now is North Dakota and Illinois. There are chances of rain over the next two days for North Dakota while opportunities build for Illinois on Friday and the weekend. Outside of those two states soil moisture is broadly adequate.

Another explosive day developed in the cattle trade yesterday, with live cattle futures bolting $4.00 and feeder cattle rallying over $5.00 on the backs of a prior substantial gaining session. Feeder cattle rallied $16.00 from Wednesday morning of last week, making a low at 303. With feeder cattle so close to 320, a minor correction of a few dollars can likely occur from overbought status. Feeder cattle now are above the cash index, which on Tuesday was up $0.64 at $311.40. Cash trade is awaited this week, but asking prices in the South are now $4 higher at $228 on the strength of the futures market and box beef values that showed gains.

Iowa State released its estimates for cattle feeding returns in May, showing profits of $529/head for finishing a 750-pound steer and $577/head for finishing 560-pound cans. Total costs were $119-187/head higher than a year ago, but total revenue was $596 higher than in 2024. This continual buying of higher calves and being able to sell them at a higher price keeps the run going until the last musical chair is missed. The feeder cattle futures market has become overbought in recent runs, especially with the push for a big premium to the feeder cattle index.