Wheat retreats modestly while corn and soybeans continue with gains to end the week.

Not much has changed fundamentally in the past 24 hours, with weather and geopolitical developments remaining the primary factors in price discovery. Wheat prices are retreating modestly after Wednesday’s large surge, as world markets are now catching up and reacting to those gains.

In terms of weather, much of the U.S. Corn Belt is forecast to see high temperatures near 100 degrees for the next four to five days. While the heat is expected to ease afterward, temperatures are likely to remain warm. Overnight temperatures are the most critical to monitor, as elevated nighttime heat can negatively impact corn yields. Rain is expected to follow the heat, beginning next Wednesday, with ridge-riding storms targeting the Northern Plains and Northern Midwest.

There has been little movement on the Iran-Israel front. President Trump has stated he will decide within the next two weeks whether to get involved. On trade, the U.S. has made notable progress with the UK, but talks with other nations have stalled. Officials say the White House is close to finalizing a deal with India, but negotiations with Japan remain difficult.

Despite ongoing weather challenges, Russia announced its expectation to export 45 million metric tons of wheat in the 2025-26 season, which would be 1 to 1.5 million metric tons more than the previous year. However, drought conditions in Russia are worsening, with more state emergencies being declared. Ukraine has also experienced prolonged dryness, which is likely to reduce its wheat crop as it nears maturity. In contrast, the Canadian Prairies are forecast to receive rain over the next seven days, a much-needed development, especially to help control the nearly 200 wildfires currently burning across the northern provinces.

Live and feeder cattle futures rebounded on Thursday following Wednesday's sharp losses and are anticipating a steady outlook this morning, supported by stable energy prices and stronger equity markets. Some cash trade began on Thursday, with dressed trade in the North down $2 to $4 for the week, at $376 to $378, while live sales were off $5 at $236. Additional trade on Thursday continued at similar prices. Initial sales in the South came in at $231, which is also down $5 for the week.

Boxed beef prices climbed again on Thursday, with choice cuts rising another $4.92 to $393.79. This marks a $17 increase over the past four days, as packers continue raising beef prices to recover margins.

After the close today at 2:00 p.m., the June Cattle on Feed report will be released. The average trade estimates are: On Feed at 99%, Placements at 94%, and Marketings at 90.7%. Given the technical damage done over the past two weeks of futures trading, any rallies of another $2 to $3 will likely be viewed as retracement selling opportunities.