The grain trade is set for a Turnaround-Tuesday recovery.
Grain futures are mostly firmer this morning, with the exception of Minneapolis wheat, which is down 2 cents. July corn remains near steady and continues to appear undervalued. Weekly corn demand remains strong, even with Brazil’s safrinha crop entering the export market. However, Brazil’s domestic corn prices are elevated, keeping supplies from flowing freely into export channels. Additionally, Brazilian farmers are stockpiling corn, which further limits export availability and supports U.S. export prospects. That said, strong U.S. crop condition ratings are capping price strength, although dryness is developing in the Western Corn Belt. Several local reports indicate that rain will be needed soon.
Soybean oil gapped higher during Monday night’s session, reacting to last week’s expanded limit-up close. However, it quickly sold off after two days of heavy buying sparked by the recent RVO announcements. Last week’s U.S. soybean crop condition declined by 2 points, though the market has not shown much concern yet. Still, with new crop soybeans already in a rationing scenario, any further yield loss is something the U.S. cannot afford. Fresh news is limited this morning, pressuring broader markets, while oversold technical conditions are offering some initial support.
In Washington, the Senate has released its version of the tax package for negotiations with the House over President Trump’s proposed spending bill. Discussions include making the estate tax exemption permanent and expanding business expense allowances. The House version includes an extension of the 45Z tax credit for biofuel producers through 2031. However, the Senate proposal aims to restrict qualifying feedstocks to domestic sources, which raises questions. The House version allows the use of Canadian and Mexican vegetable oils, so debate continues on whether Canadian canola or Brazilian soybeans crushed in the U.S. could qualify for RINs.
Weather forecasts remain mostly favorable across the U.S., while rain is still in the outlook for dry areas of Canada. Markets will be closed this Thursday for the Juneteenth holiday, which was signed into law by President Biden four years ago. France and Eastern Europe remain dry in the 6 to 10-day forecast window.
In livestock, cattle and feeder cattle futures posted strong gains on Monday after crude oil avoided the feared spike following Israel’s military actions against Iranian nuclear facilities. Live cattle futures closed more than $3.00 higher, while feeder cattle gained over $4.00 late in the session. With a softer stock market this morning and energy prices bouncing, cattle futures may face some profit-taking after yesterday’s surge. Helping to support the outlook, the afternoon boxed beef report showed Choice cutouts at $382.11, up $4.23, and Select up $3.96 to $367.47. This should contribute to a steady tone in the cash cattle market following several weeks of solid gains.