Soybean oil is sharply higher with expanded limits in place today.

Grain futures are broadly mixed this morning, with wheat and corn trading lower, while soybeans find support from a sharply higher soybean oil market, which is rallying in expanded limits. Friday’s announcement of a proposed biodiesel blending rate increase to 5.6 billion gallons came in above trade expectations. However, soybeans are not as strong as they could be, as they are contending with continued weakness in the soybean meal market, which is making new contract lows. An abundance of soybean meal is expected to compete with corn in feed rations.

Expectations for a record crush total in May, based on the upcoming NOPA report, are also supporting the soy complex, with estimates calling for a record 193.52 million bushels.

Grains are under pressure due to the absence of a significant weather threat to the global market. While there are pockets of concern, they are not widespread enough to cause major production losses, at least not yet. Some U.S. forecasts are showing a buildup of heat, which is needed for crop development but could cause stress in areas with limited rainfall. Corn is also facing pressure from the lack of any major change in U.S. ethanol demand for future blending.

After a strong start overnight, crude oil prices have retreated, with August crude now trading at $70.00 per barrel. This has limited broader market concerns, as global oil production is not currently perceived to be at risk. Attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the main shipping outlet for the region. Any threat to that passage could trigger a much stronger market response. OPEC has stated it is monitoring the situation and is prepared to adjust production as needed.

President Trump is scheduled to travel to Canada this week along with Treasury Secretary Bessent for the G7 meetings. Trade discussions during the three-day summit are expected to include tariff policy. Several countries have indicated that, in the absence of finalized trade agreements, tariff rates could return to their April 2 levels. Although there have been repeated claims that trade deals are imminent, none have materialized so far. This uncertainty is a negative factor for the U.S. grain market, despite continued weakness in the U.S. dollar, which has dropped to levels not seen since April 2022.

An active weather pattern will persist this week, with showers and storms occurring today across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, pushing eastward by midweek. Rainfall is also forecast for the Canadian prairies, which will benefit dry areas and may help suppress some of the 220 ongoing wildfires across the Canadian provinces. The 10-day forecast for rainfall and temperatures remains favorable for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through June 26.

Live and feeder cattle futures were sharply lower on Friday but are showing a steady to firm tone for early trade today. Outside markets have crude oil pulling back, while stock indexes are recovering from Friday’s economic fears related to higher energy prices. Last week’s cash feeder index rose $11 to a record near 317, while August feeder futures closed nearly $12 under that value on Friday. In the live cattle trade, prices in Texas ranged from 235 to 240, reflecting gains of $5 to $10 for the week.

Last week’s cattle slaughter totaled 588,000 head, down 24,000 from the previous week and 50,000 below the same week last year. Meanwhile, boxed beef prices moved sharply higher, with choice cuts gaining $12.80 to reach $378, exceeding the highs from this spring’s rally. August live cattle remain at historically large discounts to cash, with June futures, now halfway through the delivery period, also trading well below current cash values, which remain uncharacteristically high for this time of year.