The soybeans remain firm while corn turned near steady, with wheat still having losses at the close of the night session.

Grain markets continued yesterday’s pattern, with corn and wheat remaining under pressure while soybeans held firmer overnight. The market is largely lacking fresh news, leaving prices to follow their paths of least resistance. For grains, that path remains lower; for soybeans, the trend is more neutral. Despite less-than-perfect weather, conditions across the US are still favorable enough to support expectations for a solid production year. The key question now is whether yields will meet demand. At this stage, the trade appears confident that corn production, in particular, will be sufficient.

The latest weekly crop progress report held few surprises. Planting continues, and crop condition ratings have made a slight improvement. The Eastern Corn Belt still raises concerns about yield potential, but stress is also beginning to show up in other growing regions. Even if acreage holds steady in the next USDA report, market participants may begin to revise yield expectations downward, especially for corn. Weak export demand is adding pressure to corn prices, with global buyers opting to pass on US supplies.

Soybeans, on the other hand, are finding more support. The recent market pullback has attracted renewed interest from importers, especially for soybean oil. With US soybeans now priced below Brazilian offerings, the trade is increasingly optimistic about export potential.

Trade talks between the US and China are ongoing today. President Trump has indicated that progress is being made. These meetings are expected to conclude by Wednesday, and any final statements may shape sentiment about the likelihood of a broader agreement by mid-August. Grain markets may respond to those headlines in the short term.

On the global weather front, conditions are improving in the Canadian Prairies and northern China Plains. However, Spain and France remain locked in a dry pattern, with signs of developing drought. Here in the US, rain is expected to return across the Western Midwest and Northern Plains by late Wednesday, with scattered showers forecasted for much of the Midwest and Delta through the end of the week. Temperatures will be seasonally warm, ranging from the 70s and 80s with occasional readings in the low 90s. One notable factor is the active jet stream, which continues to prevent any prolonged stagnation of weather patterns heading into July.

In livestock, live and feeder cattle futures opened the week on a firm note and consolidated near session highs. Strength late in the day extended the bullish trend, producing new contract highs across the board. Feeder cattle were especially strong, supported by a $4.30 gain in the cash index, which closed at $310.46.

Last week’s negotiated fed cattle trade saw a notable price spike. The 5-area average live price rose $7 to a record $237, while the average dressed price jumped $12 to $380. Despite the rally, negotiated volumes were down, with Packers purchasing 78,808 head—65,274 scheduled for delivery within 1 to 14 days, and 13,534 for 15 to 30 days out.

Boxed beef prices also started the week strong. Choice cuts rose $2.17 to $367.25, and Select was up $2.20 to $358.93—levels not seen since the pandemic. However, concerns linger in the cash market. Heavy discounts persist, and many anticipate a near-term correction. The risk of a packing plant shutdown or a sharp pullback in cash cattle prices remains a key fear. At some point, the bullish party may end once the Packers meet their needs.