Again, wheat leads morning strength due to Russian wheat freezing.

Grains are mixed this morning after a mostly lower night session, with wheat finding buying interest in the overnight. Further freezing has occurred in Russia on their wheat crop, building expectations that Russian exports could be lower than the present pace last two years. Russian export sources are dropping their all-wheat crop estimate to 84-86 MMTs, with air few with them as low as 82 MMTs. A crop of 85 MMTs would drop the 2024/25 Russian wheat export estimates to 47-48 MMTs, with 82 MMTs pushing exports below 45 MMT. IKAR analysts lowered their 2024 Russia wheat production estimate to 86 MMT from 91 MMT and wheat exports to 47 MMT from 50.5 MMT. SovEcon (the Russian USDA equivalent) lowered their 2024 Russian wheat estimate to 89.6 MMT from 93 MMT.

This afternoon’s crop progress report estimates have corn plantings at 47-50% grade and soybeans at 44-47%. Both are slightly below the five-year average. Spring wheat seeding is expected to advance to 73-76% completion, and winter wheat ratings are near steady. The worry is an active Central US weather pattern this week, with the seeding of the last 25-33% of corn and beans delayed amid the flooding across the Gulf states. A drier forecast pattern is desired but not in the offering into the opening days of June for the Central US.

China continues to have a bearish consumer confidence/spending outlook. Due to sliding real estate values, its PPI came in at -2.5%. Although its April inflation rate rose 2.3%, food prices were down 2.7% due to lower court values.

The Central US weather is anticipating a very active and progressive pattern, with storm systems passing to the Delta/Midwest every 2-3 days. Showers are darting across KS, IA, and MO, with heavy rain falling across the Gulf states of LA, AR, and MS, totaling over an inch. Over the weekend, dry weather allowed for some sporadic seeding, but the progress will be limited this week. A second system is evident late Tuesday/Wednesday with rain amounts of point 25-1.50″. The third system is due this weekend. The extended 11-15 day forecast calls for near to above normal rainfall with the continuation of the overall pattern for seen into June. This implies the last third of the corn and soybean crop will become delayed in being pushed beyond the optimum planting window area; meanwhile, flooding is anticipated to worsen across the Gulf states amid saturated soils and 10-day rains of 2.50-6.50″.

Live and feeder cattle futures were lower last week, with a steady outlook offered for this morning’s opening. After the early start last week, futures markets turned lower but held in narrow ranges that have confined live cattle for weeks. Meanwhile, feeder cattle did mark lower valuations in May as corn prices rose. The negotiated Fed cattle market took place in the last half of the week, with higher price trends in all regions, which supported the board. Live trade in the north was $1-2 higher at $187-188, with dressed trade steady-$2 higher at $with 295-298. Live sales in the South range from $184-187, which was steady-$3 higher.

Last week, cattle slaughter was unchanged at 622,000 head, but 22,000 had been slaughtered less than a year ago. Production was 1.4 million pounds larger than a year ago for the last six weeks due to the heavier carcass weights. The Commitment of Traders report showed that for the week ending May 7, funds bought 3300 live cattle contracts, while commercials also bought 2100 contracts. The week-to-week price change during the reporting period of Tuesday had cattle showing a small gain of $0.55. August live cattle come to the lead contract on the continuation charts within a week. They must hold 71.00 on a closing basis.