Turkey bans wheat imports for four months.

Grain prices are lower this morning, led by wheat, as Turkey, Russia’s second-largest wheat importer, stated that it would halt wheat imports to stabilize their domestic market and reduce a more favorable landscape for its producers. That news pressured French milling wheat heavily, currently down $7.00 at 244.25, and Russian wheat also saw values hit hard. Turkey farmers look to harvest a large 19 MMT wheat crop with old crop carry-in stocks at 6 MMTs, placing the new crop starting supplies at 25 MMTs, the largest in decades.

This four-month ban on Turkish wheat imports and the allowance of Turkish exports of durum wheat has sparked the selling across world wheat markets. Due to the improved US weather forecasts, corn and soybeans have fallen back lower. But this weekend, in the heart of the Midwest, the growing season has effectively already seen the start of weather markets and will make it difficult for traders to want to be overly short. Increased grain volatility heading into corn pollination in July will become tedious. Around the USDA June crop report, seasonal wheat value lows could be arriving soon, as world supply numbers still look to be constricted, much larger than the eminent Turkish announcement.

It’s reported now that soybeans off the Pacific Northwest are competitive against Brazilian soybeans in China for August/September, as Brazilian premiums keep rising. The US soybean export window to China from late summer forward is finally opening, especially with the recent application of export taxes, which has caused Brazilian farmers to limit sales.

State-run China Daily reports that despite ambitions for enhanced food self-sufficiency, China is projected to continue relying heavily on U.S. imports of soybeans and sorghum for decades. The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) forecasts that by 2050, China will still depend on the U.S. for approximately 39% of its soybeans and 60% of its sorghum. To meet the evolving demands of its population, CAAS projects China will need to increase the production of key food groups significantly. By 2035, production is expected to rise by 29.64 MMT for meat, 6.13 MMT for eggs, 9.58 MMT for dairy products, and 19 MMT for aquatic products. These figures are expected to climb further by 2050. This projected growth will increase animal feed demand.

This weekend, a warm/dry forecast is anticipated for the Midwest, with better rain chances across the E Plains and Missouri Valley. An NW upper air flow produces cool/dry Midwest weather, with the high-pressure Ridge across Mexico starting to move northward into the Great Basin and S Plains after June 12. This Ridge does produce heat in the South-Central US into mid-June, with rain chances across the far and Midwest from Ridge riding systems. The models are unable to forecast the timing and rain amounts from these ridge-riding storms, and significant forecast adjustments will continue to occur. The US model wants to place the Ridge across the Eastern Midwest, while other models have the Ridge across the Great Basin. The record warmth from the Gulf of Mexico and the resulting tropical activities provide fits for forecasting models. But what is coming is a drier trend across the Central US, with heat returning in mid-June.

Live cattle and feeders closed lower on Thursday, with a steady-soft outlook for this morning's start. The weakness and feeder cattle weighed on live contracts, but August cattle did find support and hovered back near moving average values. Today’s closes need to see improvements, or technical damage will start to be witnessed on the charts, implying something out there in the wind is concerned about demand. We are still waiting for cash to break out, with feedyards passing on steady bids of $301 on the dressed bases in the north and $185 in the South.

Beef cow slaughter rates have fallen sharply in the first half of the year, with the cumulative total at a six-year low. January 1 beef cow herd was at a multi-decade low, so fewer cows resulted in reduced slaughter. Slaughter as a percentage of the inventory has fallen to a four-year low. Much improved pasture conditions and cow/calf margins look to be key drivers behind the slow slaughter. Without a July semi-annual report, the statistical evidence of any expansion will not be until January 2025.