Turnaround Tuesday kicked at the start of the overnight.

Grain futures rolled right into Turnaround Tuesday at the start of the night session after wheat and soybeans challenged last week’s highs but failed to find the momentum to roll through the area. The planting progress through Sunday was slightly better than expected on corn seedings at 70%, still the eighth slowest on record, while soybean seedings read 52% and spring wheat at 79%. Also, the wheat crop was rated at 49% good/excellent, down 1% from last week with 69% a crop ended.

Moving forward, the speed of the last 30% of US corn seed will determine whether farmers switch from corn and beans or accept the Preventive Plant option. With this week’s Midwest weather, farmers will likely opt to switch out or enroll a combined 1 million acres that will drop US corn seedings for 24 to 89 mill acres. This seems to be a consensus of private analysts.

There is more news on the Russian wheat crop. Private analytical firm IKAR put the Russian 2024 all-wheat crop at 82.5 MMTs, with a downward bias due to the ongoing drought across winter wheat areas and excessive rain for spring wheat. The estimated 2024/25 Russian wheat exports at 45 MMTs will be doubt eight MMTs from the current crop year. The Black Sea weather forest cast remains unchanged, with limited rainfall into June 1 and variable temperatures. Ukraine is also experiencing the same deepening drought.

Like last week, grain prices pushed sharply higher Monday and now find themselves in retreat. Last week, the retreat went all the way into Friday, just to find the market heading back to the prior week's highs. This coming weekend is a three-day weekend with Memorial Day coming up. Corrections may be short-lived as end-users desire another break to get bids under the market. Adverse weather continues to be a focus, with the Black Sea and South American crops producing shortfalls compared to the winter's lofty expectations.

The US weather forecast shows an active pattern into early June, with three storm systems to pass across the E plains, Delta and the Midwest over the next 10-12 days. The rains are targeting the W Midwest this morning, with heavy rain being reported in flash flood warnings posted across Iowa. Over the next 24-36 hours, it will produce a new round of threatening weather in terms of wind, hail, and rain. Flooding spreads into W Illinois, and any remaining spring seeding will be delayed for 4-6 days. Another round of wet weather targets E Midwest on Thursday/Friday with additional rains of .5-1.50″. She wanted Midwest 10-day rainfall totals to be estimated at 1.25-4.50″ with locally heavier amounts. The extended 11-15 day forecast offers more rain and another significant storm system.

It was a mixed trade on Monday, with feeder cattle futures lower because of higher corn prices, while a steady outlook is now offered for early trade this morning. Cash markets are their typical quiet function at the start of the week and before the Memorial Day Weekend. Last week, the Packers had close to 94,000 head on a negotiated basis, with 63,000 head for 1-14 day delivery and 31,000 for 15-30 day delivery. The early outlook for cash looks steady.

Yesterday’s pasture ratings from the condition report showed a marked improvement over last year. Last week, the national good/excellent past ratings came in at 49%, a 12% increase from last year and 9% higher than the five-year average. Over the last three years, poor pasture conditions were part of the herd liquidation. The market will wait to see whether the much-improved pasture ratings eight expansion plans. Unfortunately, we don’t have a July Cattle Inventory Report this year so that data will be unavailable until January.