Corn is working on V bottom confirmation.

Grain prices are on the hunt to the outside, with corn working to confirm a V bottom as it breached the 20-day MA for the first time in three months. Closing above 433 on Thursday and Friday is needed to confirm. Wheat is recovering from its heavy selling on Wednesday as Russian wheat values have stabled at $198.00. No purchase has been finalized yet for Egypt’s GASC wheat tender, but the lowest offer is from Bulgaria at $225.77/MT fob, according to trade sources. Official Russian wheat offers to GASC were higher than expected at $235/MT for 180 days of finance and $260/MT for 270 days of finance. The loading period was covered from May 1-10.

Chinese customs data showed soybean imports from Jan-Feb 2024 were 13.04 MMT. In an unusual move, they revised the Jan-Feb 2023 import estimate from 16.17 MMT to 14.30 MMT. Jan-Feb 2024 is at the lowest level since 2019.

In January, Mexico submitted documentation to the USMCA panel proving that GM corn and glyphosate are harmful to humans. Their agriculture minister said they are waiting for the US to prove otherwise. The US will have a rebuttal soon.

The WASDE Report is tomorrow, and the focus will be on USDA adjustments to Brazilian production. The current estimate is that the USDA is only coming down to 152.28 MMTs, while numerous private analysts are under 145 MMT. The USDA was at a high 156 MMT last month. Brazilian corn is put at 121.95 MMTs, down from last month’s 124 MMT.

Brazilian bean offers have jumped over a dollar since the end of December, with Brazilian beans going from a negative $1.25 to the CME board to a current $0.25 discount. This occurred during a fast harvest, implying a crop smaller than what is being led to believe. Friday’s WASDE data will be very interesting. The safrinha corn planting should be wrapping up by early next week, and data for Mato Grosso farmers shows they are looking at a loss of $105.82 per acre for corn, which may limit acreage interest.

The South American weather forecast maintains below-normal rain across northern and Central Brazil while soaking rains of 3-6.00” arrive across E Argentina. Brazilian high temperatures will reach the 90s, with Paraguauan highs in the mid to upper 90s. Soil moisture levels are dropping with the heat, which will raise concerns about Brazilian winter corn production should the monsoon retreat in late March/early April.

Live and feeder cattle retreated yesterday after Tuesday's bounce with a steady outlook offered this morning, with feeder cattle possibly seeing early weakness on the strong corn market overnight. Packer bids are quoted $lower from last week at $182, while the asking prices are $3-4 higher at $186-187. It’s anticipated that sales will probably arrive this week at either steady or possibly $1-2 higher. On Wednesday, the choice cutout was up $0.12, while the select was $0.22 higher. Both values are still slightly lower for the week. Cattle slaughtered midweek totaled 306 2000 head, which is down 10,000 from last week and 14,000 head fewer than a year ago. Packers are managing inventory ahead of peak demand, similar to last August/September, so there is a concern about the late negotiated purchases and slaughter development.