Argentine port strike ended within two days which is typical

Grain futures are mostly lower this morning but recovered from overnight weakness as Argentina ended its port strike. Union oilseed workers in Rosario ports lifted their strike, and operations resumed last night after Argentina’s government passed numerous reform bills that included labor law reforms.

Support for soybeans comes from Brazil July soybean fob continuing to firm and is now at 38-45 cents over vs the US at 55 cents over. US beans are becoming competitive for late summer. Russian fob wheat offers are rising as farmers have stopped selling which is causing importers to bid up. The SW part of Russia is being monitored as they await rain for wheat.

Today is the USDA Fats & Oils / Grain Crushings Report at 2 p.m. CT. Analysts forecast a March soy crush of 6.180 MMT, which would be +6.2% higher than February and +4.1% higher than March a year ago.

President Biden released guidance for sustainable aviation fuel subsidies with a GREET model update. For ethanol to meet requirements, farmers will need to use Ag practices, including no-till, efficient fertilizer application, and cover cropping, among other practices that hold carbon in the soil. There are still more questions than answers currently. It’s not until early 2025 that the EPA 40B tax credits give way to a more probable tax credit called 45Z. The rules to qualify for 45Z were not released yesterday, and it’s hoped that those updates will occur by late summer/early autumn. With it being an election year, they will likely not miss the release of the stats by six months again.

Preventive Plant is starting to become a conversation, with rains appearing to delay Northern Plains planting. The planting dates for N Plains/W Midwest corn are May 25 and June 10 for beans. With lower prices and wet fields, preventive plant will start to become a conversation, especially with week two in the forecast for N Plains and W Midwest looking wet.

The current US weather pattern is progressive, with four storms over the next 10-12 days to produce above-normal E Plains and Midwest rainfall. Positive here is a forecast model a little bit farther west with moisture into the dry areas of W Kansas, which weakened the KC’s/Chicago spread yesterday and today. There is a wet pattern for the Central US in the key will be whether dry weather returns in the 10-15 day window. The often most correct EU ensemble model has another storm system with at least normal rainfall during May 10-15 concerns will build of the extended range models maintain rain amounts into May 10-20.

Yesterday, live and feeder cattle prices were sharply lower, with a softer tone anticipated this morning. The negotiated fed cattle markets are quiet, with asking prices in the South quoted at $186, which would be $4 higher for the week. Meanwhile, box beef values had choice tumbling $3.16 to $294.37 while select drifted $0.26 at $289.95, putting the choice/select spread at a historically narrow $4.42 choice premium. Yesterday, the April live cattle contract went off at $185 versus a year ago at $175. June live cattle are now the front month with a discount of $9 to the cash index versus $11 a year ago. The market in the coming weeks will be whether the cash softens to the board, or the board gets tugged higher by a firm holding cash trade. There is a fear that with the USDA testing aggressively N5H1 in hamburger, if a positive arrives, the markets will be sharply lower, similar to a BSC event of the past.