Wheat maintains overnight strength.

Grain prices are mixed after a volatile night session for wheat. Wheat is still firm this morning despite forecasts for needed rain to fall across Western Kansas this afternoon and into the weekend. The dryness in Russia is now moving northwards, with rains next week seen as light for the Southwest, where the dryness is now into seven weeks.

Export sales this morning were positive for corn, coming in above expectations at 1.3 MMTs versus a range of guesses averaging at .7 MMTs. Meanwhile, soybeans came in under expectations of .211 MMTs versus an expectation of .450 MMTs. Wheat fell within the minimal ranges. Russian fob wheat is holding at $210/MT FOB this morning. Interior wheat markets within Russia are rising, but the spot FOB market is holding flat with last week’s close. The recent $ 0.40-bushel rally in Chicago wheat futures and €10/MT jump on Paris wheat will be hard to sustain if Russian FOB prices do not start gaining.

Thursday’s open interest fell by 4,503 contracts in Chicago wheat, 10,790 contracts in corn, and 9978 contracts of soybeans. Short covering has been evident with only three trading days left before May futures are deliverable.

An active day of spring planting will occur across the Midwest before abundant rains return from Friday through the weekend. Rainfall totals are estimated to range from .75-3.50”, with some localized heavier amounts producing low-lying flooding. The forecast calls for near-normal rain for the first 10 days of May with near to above-normal temperatures. This favors a resumption of spring seeding and normal corn planting progress. At this time, no pattern of enduring wet weather and long-lasting planting delays has been seen. Severe weather, rain, and hail will drop across Kansas/Oklahoma later today, with the western third of both states seeing below half an inch of rain. Central and Eastern Kansas/Oklahoma are forecast to receive .25-1.50” of rain. It is hoped that the Plains dryness will be alleviated by mid-May. The pattern offers regular rain chances, and it is about timing and whether rain reaches Western Kansas.

Live and feeder cattle were found renewed selling on Wednesday, and live cattle failing to build follow-through meant them to the upside from early week gains. Yesterday, Agriculture Secretary Vilsack confirmed that cattle must be tested for bird flu before being moved interstate. If found positive, they will be banned from moving for at least 30 days until they test negative. Ag Sec Vilsack also said that USDA will pay for increased testing of cattle at national health labs. Some initial cash trade got underway on Wednesday when feedlots in the South sold steady bids at $182. The related sales volume has more business to be done. Limited sales in the north red are $290 on the rail, and no live trade has been reported.

Yesterday’s April Cold Storage report showed that March beef stocks fell 3% from February and were down 10% from a year ago, marking the 14th consecutive month of year-over-year declines. At 432 million pounds, it was the smallest stock number since September but also the smallest March stock figure since 2014. Stocks typically find a low in the summer, and it is estimated that beef stocks could fall to as low as 350 million pounds for the seasonal low.