French milling wheat leads overnight gains.

Grain prices are mixed this morning with wheat advancing, following French milling wheat’s gains of $5.00 MTs on NSW Russian dryness. Heavy funds shorts are taking note and are starting a lifting process. Their heavy short position across the grain complex makes it obvious that any shock to the system will prompt a sharp rise. This morning, Kansas City wheat took out the high of the previous two weeks. A sustaining close above 592 would be technically bullish. The March high was 595.6 for July Kansas City wheat.

As of last week Tuesday, the Commitment of Traders showed that managed money sold 16,016 contracts of corn (net—279,570), 28,565 beans (net -167,875), and 9,835 Chicago wheat (net—96,403). Funds are holding the largest net short Ag position in 4.5 years.

Russia’s government announced an additional 5 MMT export quota for barley, corn, and rye outside the Russia-centric Eurasian Economic Union to help support domestic farmers. IKAR upped its 23/24 Russian wheat export forecast by +1 MMT to 53 MMT over the prior forecast. Over the weekend, Ukraine’s Presidential office reported that a Russian missile attack destroyed grain facilities in the southern Odesa port of Pivdennyi.

This afternoon’s crop progress reports out at 3:00 p.m. anticipate farmers have planted 10-4% of the corn and 7-8% of the soybeans through Sunday. This compares to five-year averages of 10% corn and 6% soybeans. Spring wheat seeding is anticipated in the 14-16% range, while US winter wheat crop ratings are anticipated to decline one to two percent from the good/excellent category due to the ongoing Kansas dryness.

The GFS/EU weather models maintain limited rainfall chances for the Central US into April 25, with the potential of some better rain opportunities after that. The models are increasing the chance of rain across the dry W Plains late in the week, and the currently often more correct EU model is wetter than the GFS. The extended range 11-15 day forecast has a second chance of W Plains rain in early May. The North American weather pattern is progressive, with showers and storms starting in 3-4 days and then continuing with two more rain chances into May 6. The dryness across the W Midwest is anticipated to abate with US spring row crop planting near-normal with sporadic rain delays. In South America, the monsoonal rain showers have ended with no chance of returning over the next 10 days, allowing growing warmth across Central Brazil from drying soils on the winter corn crop.

Live in feeder cattle futures are looking for a higher start this morning after a friendly view of last Friday’s Monthly Cattle on Feed Report results: On Feed April 1st 101.5% of last year (est 102.1%), March Placements 87.7% (est 93%), and March Marketings 86.3% (est 88.1%). Last week’s cash trade held off until Friday, with feedyards accepting packer bids ahead of the report. Live sales in the north were steady-$one lower at $183-184, and dressed sales were $1 lower at $292. Live trade in the South was mostly steady at $182.

Box beef values last week continued to correct with choice cutout down $4.90/CWT, led by a $10/CWT correction in the loin primal. Select was also off $4.71 for the week. Estimated slaughter margins fell $174/head for the week down to $54, which was the lowest in late April since 2017. Live cattle proved long-term support last week at $170 but now have technical resistance, arriving at 177.50-178.00 with major resistance at $180.00.