This morning's grain trade is nearly mixed.

This morning’s grain trade is mixed, as the market is stabilizing from yesterday’s heavy selling. The corn basis bids remain strong and increasing on strong domestic demand while the wheat market is getting attention of the deepening dryness across the HRW wheat belt and the SW Russian winter wheat areas. Yesterday’s heavy Brazilian farmer selling due to the break to 52-week low on the Brazilian real was met with strong crush margins and short-bought exporters who absorbed the supply without much of the decline in cash basis bids. Even with the heavy farmer selling in Brazil yesterday, the FOB may Paranagua is holding at seven cents over May soybean Chicago futures. Traders do expect improved corn and soybean export sales Thursday morning in the FAS weekly sales report.

The USDA Foreign Ag Service administrator indicated that they plan to roll out a new weekly Thursday export sales reporting system that will be extensively tested in the latter half of 2025. This resulted from a botched rollout in August 2022 that delayed export sales reporting for three weeks.

Shipping brokers estimate Ukraine’s waterway food exports for the 1st half of April total 3.5 MMT, with 3 MMT leaving Black Sea ports while 500K MT went via the Danube River. Ukraine’s state-run railway again extended the halt of shipments to the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk until April 22nd. Egypt’s GASC ended up buying 120K MT of Ukrainian wheat in their tender yesterday. Ukraine offers were the lowest for the shipping periods requested, beating Russia, France, Romania, and Bulgaria.

The dollar's strength has been a bearish issue for the commodity markets, specifically grains, as other commodities have favored well yet with exports (crude oil, beef, and pork). The rising dollar, combined with that US treasury note returning to 4.7%, which is the best in a decade, has the grains needing supply issues to prompt any substantial price lift. US ag trade has suffered in SE Asia as the Biden administration has not been pursuing tariff-lowering free trade agreements. Yesterday, US trade representative Katherine Tai was questioned about these issues before the Senate Finance Committee, and no reasonable response was given. Only Mexico has been the bright spot on surging US corn export demand, which has increased substantially over the last year.

The forecast for the central and southern plains on the GFS and EU models maintains near to below-normal rain forecasts. There is the opportunity of rain in the 11-15 days. A ridge/trough pattern forms across the Central US. Whether this pattern will be able to produce any rain across arid Western Plains will be monitored. Meanwhile, Central US temperatures will warm with high temps ranging from the 60s-80s for another day or two before cold Canadian air spills southward. A frost freeze line will extend from Garden City, Kansas, into Milwaukee, Wisconsin. More seasonal temperatures are forecast beyond the middle of next week.

Live and feeder cattle futures yesterday were higher for the second day in a row, with today being the opening of the third day. Since March, every two-day rally so far has been met with selling on the day after the two-day lift. Today will be a key test of strength for the cattle trade if it can circumvent the Bears from trying to reassert selling interest today. Cash markets still are at a standstill for the Plains, with better interest expected today. Early week strength has offers in the South quoted $184 which would be $2 higher than last week.

Yesterday, Iowa State estimated that cattle feeding returns in March showed the fifth consecutive month of losses for finishing yearly steers at $77/head loss. It was the smallest on price since November. The average breakeven was $225/CWT against the average sales of $188. The returns on feeding 560 LB steer calves read $231/head profit, the highest since September.