Lack of turnaround Tuesday with evening strength fading.

Grain futures opened higher Monday evening, but the trade faded throughout the night. Initial strength occurred as it was reported China’s GDP data showed +5.3% vs. +4.8% expected, boosted by the government’s efforts to spur manufacturing and demand earlier this year. China also reportedly bought 20 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans since last Friday. Chinese March soybean imports are the lowest in four years due to high prices combined with poor margins. 1st Quarter pork production fell -0.4%, the first quarter over quarter decline in almost four years. Meanwhile, US soybean sales YTD are running -19% of last year. The latter data softened overnight action.

The Rosario Grain Exchange indicated fears have been growing of a delayed Argy soybean harvest due to persistent rains over the growing area, making the crop vulnerable to disease. They lowered their production outlook to 51 MMT. NOPA Crush data was at a record high of 196.406 million bushels.

Yesterday’s NASS reported that 6% of the US corn crop, 3% of soybeans and 7% of the US spring wheat crop was planted through Sunday. All wheat ratings of good/excellent declined 1% to 55%, while the HRW Kansas good/excellent ratings were off 6% to 43%, boosting initial overnight buying. Midwest SRW wheat ratings improved with Illinois good/excellent ratings at 78%.

Egypt tendered late Monday for wheat and has received 11 suppliers offering wheat for the delivery period of May 20-30 with payment terms of 180-270 days. RIF/Grain Flour did not offer wheat following issues with the Russian government. Meanwhile, the Ukraine ag ministry has cut its 2024 grain crop forecast by 10%, citing diminished spring seeding with a total crop of 52 MMTs versus 56 MMT last year. GASC.

It’s reported that the EPA is preparing to release the new GREET model by the end of this month to assess the carbon footprint of sustainable aviation fuel. The updated model incorporates climate-friendly smart farming practices. The GREET model update has been long anticipated to gauge whether US ethanol would qualify for credits to produce SAF.

Weather models maintain below-normal rain for the C and S Plains and near to below-normal rain for the Midwest. The Dakotas are now receiving needed rain after weeks of dryness. US spring planting is anticipated to advance normally, with rain delays forecasted in the far Eastern US. Meanwhile, Central US temperatures will warm with high temps ranging from the 60s to the lower 90s early this week before Canadian cold air spills southward midweek. The 11-15 day forecast offers new warmth and a storm system for the Midwest, with the Plains generally staying dry. The C and S Plains is the US weather worry where limited rainfall will accelerate soil moisture loss.

Live and feeder cattle futures were boosted out of the shoots yesterday to the upside, producing sharp gains early in the session before retreating substantially from the highs into the close. Live cattle did post $1.40 gains in the front with $2 gains in the deferred’ s. While feeder cattle still showed $3-4 gains. Cash markets were quiet on Monday, with active cash trade likely to hold off until Thursday. Last week, the Packers bought 64,875 heads on a negotiated basis, with 48,628 on a 1-14 day delivery and 16,247 for a 15-30 day delivery. It was the second-lowest volume week of negotiated buying since January. Year-to-date, Packers have bought just over one million head on a negotiated basis, an 11% decline from last year and the lowest volume since USDA began reporting such data in 2003.

Beef prices were mixed on Monday. Choice was up $0.31, while select tumbled $4.20. The choice/select spread widened to a $9.54 choice premium. June cattle proved substantial support just above 170.00, anchoring a substantial low given the weekly chart moving average support that was critically needed to hold just above 171.00.