Lower crude oil softens the commodity trade.
Grain futures are lower to start the week on reasonable planting weather and weakness in the energy complex. The Iranian attack on Israel failed to spark sharp rallies in crude oil, as Israel was able to defend most of Iran’s attacks successfully. The break in crude pressured other commodity values, including grains.
The grain trade remains stagnant, with neither bulls nor bears able to sustain any trend. Farmers should make normal seeding progress for corn, estimated to be 6-7% planted through Sunday, and soybeans are getting underway at 3-4% seated. However, US HRW wheat ratings are expected to decline today, with good/excellent ratings off 2-3%, amid a lack of rain and weekend high temperatures in the 80s/90s. The all-wheat crop ratings last week were 56% GD/EX, which was the best in years.
Israel has pledged to retaliate against Iran following a weekend barrage of more than 300 drones and missile attacks. 99% of the projectiles were gone down before reaching Israel, but the potential of a broadening Mideast war has the attention of the marketplace.
The NOPA Crush Report will be out at 11 a.m. CT, and analysts are forecasting a March crush of 197.79 mbu vs. 186.194 mbu in February and 185.81 mbu in March of 2023. The crush rate has been record-high from September to March, and some suspect WASDE is 40 Mil Bu too low on their annual forecast of 2,300 Mil Bu. With margins currently sinking, it’s anticipated crushers will take extra seasonal downtime for maintenance in the spring.
Roughly 6 vessels of Russian wheat owned by RIF/Grain Flour did not receive phytosanitary certificates on the weekend that would allow the vessels to leave port. The Grain Flower export delays are worsening but have not significantly impacted Russian wheat exports, which will be record large during April at 4.4-4.5 MMTs. Russian fob wheat is bid at $211/MT and offered at $2134/MT to start the week.
Commitment of Traders Report showed managed funds sold 3,998 contracts of corn (net -263,554), sold 1,054 contracts of beans (net -139,310), and bought 5,376 contracts of wheat (net -86,568).
The GFS and EU models offer below-normal rain for the C and S Plains and near-below-normal rain for the Midwest. The Dakotas will receive needed rain later today and Tuesday following weeks of dryness. The spring planting should be able to advance normally with any delays focused on far eastern US states. Central US temps will be warm, with high temps ranging from the 60s to lower 90s early this week before Canadian cold air spills southward during the middle of the week. A frost/freeze line will extend and E from Hayes, Kansas, into Milwaukee, WI. The 11-15 day forecast offers new warmth and a storm system for the Midwest, with the Plains staying generally dry. Dryness continues to plague the Russian winter wheat areas through April 25.
Live and feeder cattle futures again ended lower last week over the perceptions that bird flu headlines could dampen demand. Negotiated fed cattle trade marked the third consecutive week lower because of the demand scares, along with rising carcass weights. Live trade in the north was $2-4 lower at $184-185, and dressed sales were $2-4 lower at $293-295. In the South, the live trade came in at $2 lower, at $182. Sales in the north last week were just $1-2 higher than a year ago, and in the South, was just $6-7 higher. Box beef values recovered last week, with Choice gaining $3.40 for the week, led by Chuck Primal. The select picked up $0.84. Compared to a year ago, the choice was $2 higher, and Select was up $14.
Last week’s kill of 603,000 head was down 10,000 head for the week and 8000 fewer than a year ago. Contrary to that is the estimated average carcass weight was 147 pounds, up 28 pounds from last year. Record heavy weights continue to work against cattle prices. June live cattle found support on Friday just above 170.00. An immediate recovery rally needs to take place early this week with closes above 171.00 paramount, or technicals will continue the December-like washout.