Argentine and Brazilian crops lowered.

This morning’s grain trade is mixed with wheat and soybeans softer, while corn is firm ahead of the WASDE data. Overnight Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange cut their 23/24 corn estimate from 57 MMT to 50.5 MMT due to disease (leafhopper). Corn stunt disease, which is a bacterial infection called Spiralplasma Kunkelii, is commonly found in sub-tropical areas, including the US Delta and Argentina. The recent Argentine infection has been growing in importance and being spread by leaf hoppers. The 11% Rosario corn production drop was a surprise. The trade reaction was minimal ahead of the WASDE data. The world is counting on a record to near-record Argentine corn harvest, but now it appears to be in jeopardy of corn stunt disease.

CONAB released its data this morning, and they put the soybean crop at 146.5 MMTs, down from last month's 146.9. MMTs. The corn crop was lowered to 110.9 MMTs, which is off 1.8 MMTs from March. The report is overall seen as supportive of the grain trade ahead of the USDA data at 11:00 a.m., with the trade response remaining muted.

Bloomberg reported that Chinese buyers are canceling 4 or 5 cargoes of Ukraine corn shipments for April-June, reportedly complying with the government’s demands to support domestic corn farmers. More EU-originating corn shipments may also be canceled. Ukraine’s state railway stopped all deliveries from April 11-13 to the large Black Sea port of Chornomorsk with no reason given. Missile attacks from Russia against Ukraine's port infrastructure have been ongoing.

The GFS/EU models are projecting a continuation of dry conditions across the Plains, with near to below-normal rain expected for the W Midwest and near to above-normal rainfall for the E Midwest. As the northern branch of the jet stream seasonally strengthens, weather systems are expected to target the C and E Midwest. The forecast for the next 10 days includes three storm systems, with one system currently centered over the E Midwest. Additionally, temperatures in the central US are expected to rise to above-normal levels, with high temperatures ranging from the 60s to the upper 80s.

Another day of sharp losses again for cattle and feeder cattle, as the two-day rally from early in the week was met with the classic sell after the opening of the third-day rally. This is consistent with the bearish mentality that has been in place for two weeks and we had warned about yesterday. Yesterday’s higher-than-expected inflation print, the CPI for March, pulled US financial markets to steep losses, and the ongoing bird flu outbreak in dairy cow concerns produced a sharp loss in the cattle trade. Cash markets are quiet, with bids in the north at $184-185, which implies $2-3 lower, and offers in the South were $2 higher at $186. Initial trade is expected at some point today.

Yesterday, box beef values were sharply lower, with choice dropping $3.86 and select off $3.88. From the March high, the choice value has now declined by $15.50, led by the round primal that has fallen $20/CWT and taken nearly $4.50 off the whole carcass value. An early seasonal high was scored in March, and record carcass weights are weighing on the cash trade heading into summer. Live cattle April needs to hold the 171.40 price low on a closing basis from last Friday or risk a break to the 167-168 level as this market continues to pancake lower.