Wheat leads overnight gains after having lead losses Tuesday.

The grain trade this morning is mostly higher, led by Kansas City wheat, as again, now the moisture that was scheduled on the models is nearly eliminated, the chance of precipitation across the Dakotas has been reduced with the moisture for Kansas eliminated through April 25. This means crop ratings for wheat will decline next week on HRW conditions. Soybeans were firm in the morning until the CPI data came out, which had the US dollar jumping $0.65 to 104.57.
The CPI indicator came in hot with year-over-year inflation at 3.5% versus estimates of 3.4%. The monthly inflation rate was .4% versus estimates of .3%.

Thursday brings the Brazilian CONAB crop report along with WASDE at 11:00 a.m. Attention will be on the Brazilian corn and soybean crops. In March, there was an 8.2 MMT spread between the two, which is sizable and has an impact on US 2024/25 exports. The direction of the WASDE soybean and corn estimates will be key coming out of this report tomorrow. Estimates are for the USDA to lower its be number 3.2 MMTs with corn lower by 2.2 MMTs.

The cash markets in Brazil suggest this year’s soybean harvest is well below last year, which also has limited pressure on storage and logistics to move their crop. Brazilian cash market premiums remain strong, and the demand for South American soy oil almost eliminates their harvest pressure at this point. Also, Brazilian FOB corn offers for July are now $0.65 over Chicago, which is $200/MT or the equivalency of $5.09 per bushel for export versus US corn Gulf at $0.52 over $4.96. The US now holds a modest export advantage over South America on corn through July.

The USDA’s statistical arm, NASS, made a significant announcement yesterday. Due to budget constraints, it will discontinue certain reports, including the Cotton Objective Yield Survey, County Estimates for Crops and Livestock, and the semiannual cattle inventory report, starting with the 2024 production year. This decision could potentially impact the availability of crucial market information, and traders and investors should be prepared for this change.

Both the European and Canadian weather models have almost eliminated the chance of precipitation across the Dakotas. As the northern branch of the jet stream seasonally strengthens, storm systems will take aim at the E Midwest into April 25. This leaves the Plains and most of the W Midwest enduring small amounts of moisture improvement. Central US temperatures will warm to above normal levels with high temperatures in the 60s-mid 80s. Heat and dryness will accelerate spring seeding as soil moisture declines.

Live and feeder cattle futures closed higher for the second day in a row yesterday, with a steady outlook offered today. Since the high made in March, two-day rallies have been sold by the third day. Today’s action will be key to see if strength can be maintained with our discount to the cash trade having grown out quite considerably on the H5N1 fears. Cash cattle markets are still untraded, with offers in the north quoted at $190, which would be $1-3 higher for the week, while packer bids in the South are quoted at $180-182, with them trying to push the market $2-4 lower. Box beef prices were mixed yesterday, with the choice gaining just two cents at $302.09 while select was $0.37 lower at $299.90.