Turn-around Tuesday on cue.

Turn-around Tuesday didn’t miss a beat and got underway Monday evening, with French milling wheat quickly giving up its gains in scoring another new multiyear low. This pulled the wheat off yesterday’s recovery gains. The Black Sea cash market is maintaining its weakness, with Russian FOB quotes dropping to $202/MT, which compares to $225/MT at the beginning of February.

Corn prices stalled at the 20-day MA yesterday (which is also tracking the downtrend line from December-January) despite bumping last week’s high by a penny and are retreating slightly as the wheat market is an albatross to its recent gains. Soybeans also stalled yesterday just under their 20-day MA, which set off a retreat from their two-day rally.

According to Reuters, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced an aggressive growth target of around 5%, looking to transform the country’s development model and lessen risks posed by bankrupt property developers and indebted cities. China also announced a major expansion to their budget to help build state grain and edible oil stocks this year, an +8% increase in spending. The government will also earmark $7.6B for Ag insurance premium subsidies, up +19% over last year.

According to industry sources in Indonesia, the country expects 2024 wheat imports to increase by around +5% due to higher demand for animal feed and flour mills. India has been replacing higher-priced palm oil with sunflower oil sourced from the Black Sea region. Indian February palm oil imports were down -35%.

Below-normal rainfall across most of Central Brazil continues, with heat favoring Mato Grosso do Sul and Northern Paraná. Meanwhile, the Argentine forecast remains nonthreatening. Mild/dry weather occurs this week. The forecast projects 1-3” rainfall in Santa Fe and Entre Rio March 10-12.

Live and feeder cattle prices moved lower on Monday, giving back a portion of Friday’s sharp gains. Feeder cattle paced Monday’s decline on the weaker deferred live cattle values and the price rise corn had seen during the session. Box beef values had choice gaining $102 while select picked up $0.57. The choice cutout value at $306.30 has been the highest since last October. On a seasonal basis, both are priced $16-17 higher than a year ago and are record for early March.

Both live and feeder cattle have been range-bound for three weeks now; while the funds have increased their net long position, commercial hedging has increased. A new wave of fund demand is needed, or a technical correction could get underway. April cattle are targeting the October 20 gap to the upside is $190.30, otherwise support at 184.50 needs to hold on challenges or a larger break to near 180.00 would be setting up.