A new week and month has grains mixed at the start.

This morning, there is a mixed grain trade, the reverse of Friday's strength, as wheat softened with moisture in the HRW wheat area, putting extra pressure on Kansas City wheat. Russia did release some phytosanitary certificates for RIF/Grain Flour to release a few vessels over the weekend.

The world is adjusting to the NASS March seeding report, which shocked the market with a 6.3 Mil-acre reduction from last year by reducing US corn seedings by 4.6 Mil, all wheat by 2.6 Mil, with soybeans gaining 2.9 Mil and cotton up 443,000 acres. US CRP acres have been gaining in recent years, with the USDA trying to set aside marginal farmland for the protection of the environment and wildlife while hay ground also makes inroads. It’s anticipated the USDA would like to see CRP acres at 25 Mil acres by the 2025/26 crop year. Dry edible beans, chickpeas, rice, canola, and peanuts were also on the rise for acreage.

Russia’s RIF/Grain Flower export company, over the holiday weekend, was able to release a few vessels after being issued phytosanitary certificates. The Certs allow the vessels to sail, while the others are still being held and disrupted at the port by Rosselkhoznadzor (which is a form of US APHIS in Russia). Russia claims the cargoes do not meet their grain standards. Russia is working to take back control and ownership of RIF/Grain Flower with fresh delays to continue.

Russia's intensified attacks on Ukraine's electrical and energy infrastructure over the past three days are causing significant disruptions. These outages and loading delays are expected to continue, with ports now resorting to diesel-run generators to produce electrical power for August and loaders. This situation is a cause for concern, as it could potentially destabilize the grain market.

The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation experienced a slowdown last month, but a rebound in household spending suggests that the bullish narratives driving stocks to records this year are still in play. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy components, rose 0.3% from the prior month, indicating a slower pace than January’s surprising reading. This suggests that the Fed is still on track for a June rate cut. This week, we can expect crucial economic reports, including JOLTS job openings, ADP jobs, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment. Crude oil is trading near 5-month highs, but a strong Dollar is countering this trend.

USDA Weekly Export Inspections at 10 am CT. USDA Fats & Oils / Grain Crushing’s Report at 2 pm CT – analysts expect the February crush to be 5.89 MMT vs 5.844 MMT in January. If realized, this would be +11% higher than in February 2023. Crop Progress at 3 pm CT. April WASDE Report on the 11th.

North American weather has stormy weather for the Midwest this week, with improving rainfall chances for the Plains after April 10. A mixture of above- and below-normal temperatures this week will offer a warming trend in the week-two forecast, with Midwest highs in the 60s/70s. No lengthy period of open weather will be seen at the start of spring planting across the Midwest in 10-12 days.

After last week’s early tumble into Tuesday on the avian flu scares, the cattle trade recovered modestly on Thursday and Friday. The cash trade started on Wednesday with live sales in the South at $2-4 lower at $184-186. Live trade in the north was quoted steady to $1 lower and $189-190, while dressed sales were $2-4 lower and at $298-300. The north/south spread rose to a $4.50 northern premium and is tracking last year’s record seasonal run. The outlook for the early week is steady/lower. Box beef prices were lower last week, with choice boxes losing $4, led by a $17/CWT drop in the rib primal. Select boxes gained nearly $2 for the week, with both values reporting record prices for late March.

The avian flu virus is spreading in US dairy herds, and fears are starting to build that it could be detected in beef cattle. This fear could likely cap rallies with many unknowns still surrounding this disease.

Friday’s release of the Hogs & Pigs Report results showed that All Hogs & Pigs were 100.6% of last year (100% exp), Kept for Breeding was 97.9% (96.5% exp), and Kept for Market was 100.8% (100.3% exp). Hogs are called $1.00-2.00 lower for the start of futures trading. Rising pigs per litter are offsetting South slaughter.