Light trade ahead of today's USDA report.

Today is the USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Report at 11 a.m. CT. The average trade guess is 91.8 million corn acres, 86.5 million bean acres, and 47.3 million All Wheat acres. These are intentions and will change by June 30. It will be closely monitored if combined corn and soybean acreage declines, with more interest in cotton, rice, edible beans, etc.

The EU Commission's latest estimate for the 24/25 wheat crop is 120.8 MMT, compared to 125.6 MMT in 23/24. Corn production is expected to be 69.0 MMT, compared to 62.3 MMT in 23/24. This would be down 4% from last year and the smallest harvest since 2020 for wheat. Flooding rain disrupted EU wheat seeding last fall with above-normal rainfall. EU Commission expects 24/25 wheat exports to remain unchanged at 31.0 MMT. Russian FOB wheat values are pushing higher this week and are trading at $209/210/MT FOB according to export sources. RIF/Grain Flour has not received any response to the Russian ag ministry on why it is not issuing phytosanitary certificates on a growing number of cargoes. It’s anticipated that around 500,000 MTs of Russian grain is being impacted.

South Central Brazilian dryness worsens with forecasts boosting rain for Argentina next week of 1.50-4.00”. Meanwhile, normal showers are forecasted across Northern Brazil with accumulations of 1.50-4.50”. The continued growing concern is south-central Brazil, Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraguay, where dryness adversely impacts the winter corn crop. The 10-12 day arid forecast will cause an increase in crop status following more than a month of dry weather. This is 1/3 of the Brazilian winter corn crop.

Live and feeder cattle futures did find support on Wednesday above the Tuesday spike lows and ended moderately higher. Yesterday's cash feeder Index was down $0.36 at $251.27, while March closed at $248. Today marks the last trading day for March futures, with a settlement on Monday. The corn market will impact feeder cattle prices today at 11:00 CT. The nearby feeders/fat spread has been at a record seasonal price for most of the year, and deferred spreads are maintaining and suggesting that record values will continue. There was some light cash trade developing on Wednesday, with live sales in the South quoted at $2-4 lower at $184-186. Meanwhile, live trade in the north was quoted at $1 lower at $189, and dressed sales were $7 lower and $295. Additional sales are expected today at similar prices.

The reaction on Tuesday of liquidation due to the bird flu seemed to finish also on Tuesday, as June cattle found support at the 100-day moving average. The market is back to oversold levels, and cash prices are still holding up well above the futures pricing. Next support on June cattle is at the January breakout point in the 62% retracement of the winter recovery at $172. The avian flu story has not been totally discounted yet, as there is still more to learn about whether it migrates north with the birds.