Another day of selling continues ahead of Thursday's reports.

The grain trade is softer again this morning as last week's strength continues to be sold ahead of Thursday’s Stocks and Seedings report. Markets are closed on Good Friday and will reopen on Sunday evening. May corn and beans have fallen below 50-day moving averages ahead of the Report tomorrow. Yesterday, there was a large rise in open interest in soybeans, with 11,957 contracts. Tomorrow’s close will reflect the end of the month and the end of the quarter.

Despite the government’s efforts to reduce oversupply, China's hog herd is projected to be in surplus this year, a testament to its resilience. Companies have been hesitant to reduce herds, and increased sow productivity is a factor. This positive trend helps explain their continued interest in corn and sorghum imports, indicating potential opportunities in these sectors.

Freight brokers suggest that Russia's almost daily attacks on Ukraine’s ports are slowing down agricultural exports. March agricultural exports so far are 4.5 MMT vs. 4.6 MMT a year ago.
Analysts estimate that by the end of the week, Brazilian farmers will have harvested 73-75% of the soybean crop.

Some Brazil and Argentine forecasts are drier for the next 10 days a shower chances are reduced. It was hoped that better rain will drop after April 1, but that forecast of rain has been curtailed. Near normal rains are forecasted across the northern half of Brazil with accumulations of 1.50-4.50”. The Northern Brazilian rainfall is needed to restore soil moisture. The growing concern is in the South Central Brazil in Paraná, motto Grasso to Sul and Paraguay, where dryness is adversely impacting the winter corn crop. The 10-12 day arid forecast will increase corn crop stress following more than a month of dry weather. South-central Brazil accounts for 30% of the Brazilian winter corn crop.

Yesterday’s sharp decline in cattle futures was tied to index funds taking a “shoot now and ask questions later” mentality by exiting recent length amid the USDA confirming that HPAI, a virulent strain of avian influenza, has crossed over to several plains’ dairy cattle herds. This virus trade is consistently found in migrating birds. The US poultry industry has been battling HPAI for years. The concern has grown as it is crossed over to another species, bovines. This virus causes dairy cows to go on feed, dry up, and become morbid. The novel virus is causing concern in the US dairy industry as it could spread northward with the wild bird migration and potentially impact the US beef cow herd. At this early stage, measuring the economic impact on the US dairy or beef industries is impossible. The selling had cattle testing major support valuations that need to hold and produce recovery in pricing to keep charts from turning technically bearish.

Cash cattle markets remained untraded, with the break in futures setting a lower tone for cash this week. Hedged feed-yards will likely sell steady to $1 lower cash bids if they pick up a $1-2 basis. The cash beef trade was mixed on Tuesday, with choice up $0.20 while select was down $1.70. Yesterday, June, live cattle challenged the 38% retracement of the December-March rally and recovered. A close below 176.50 would technically send June live cattle to the 171.50-172.00 price range (which is the 62% retracement and above the December consolidation price range).