Good morning from Turn-around Tuesday.

The grain trade is softer this morning as the grain trade retreats from Monday’s gains. A newswire reports that nearly 400,000 MTs of Russian wheat is ensnared in the RIF/Russian government dispute over the valuation of RIF, with the Russian government unwilling to issue phytosanitary certificates. It’s unknown when and how the RIF ownership dispute will be resolved. The longer the RF/grain flour vessels are held at the port, the impacted importers will choose to secure wheat from other Russian or non—Russian suppliers. European traders doubt that the dispute will have a lasting price impact since an abundance of old-crop wheat is available. Importers will avoid securing grain from Russia’s RF until there is clarity and government actions or ownership. In the past, the Russian government forestalled world multinationals, including Cargill, ADM, LDC, and Bunge, a year ago.

Yesterday, the USDA issued state-by-state crop progress pegged G/E wheat conditions as follows: CO 68%, KS 53%, NE 66%, ND 52%, OK 70%, IL 75%, and TX 51%—most states are well above a year ago levels.

Brazil is not offering corn for export until July, with an offer of 60 under which is above US/Argentine offers for the same period. Uncertainty regarding Brazilian winter corn seedings and 30% of the crop that is enduring dryness is keeping exporters cautious about cheap price offers. Traders are watching to gauge when Brazilian exports become more aggressive in their corn offers.
USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Report on Thursday – average trade guess: 91.8 million corn acres, 86.5 million bean acres, and 47.3 million All Wheat acres.

Live and feeder cattle futures opened lower following Friday’s bearishly viewed COT report, recovered inter-session but then still ended lower at the end of the day. Negotiated cash cattle markets remain at a standstill; the trade is expected to develop earlier in the week due to the Good Friday observance. Last week, Packers bought 98,759 head on a negotiated basis, with 69,004 1-14 day delivery in the balance for 15-30 day delivery. This was the largest week of negotiated trade since late October.

USDA reported unpasteurized milk samples from dairy cows in KS and TX tested positive for avian flu. The milk is being destroyed, but there is no reason for safety concerns as pasteurization kills bacteria and viruses.

USDA Cold Storage results for February 29: TTL beef stocks 442.751 million lbs, TTL pork stocks 456.499 million lbs, and TTL chicken stocks 788.051 million lbs. For beef stocks, it was the largest February year-over-year decline since 2014 and the smallest February stocks figure since 2014.