The overnight grain trade is firm to start the week.

The grain trade this morning is mostly firmer, with corn nearly unchanged. Wheat prices are firmer and up against the downtrend line resistance on the Kansas City and Chicago wheat contracts as the Russian government and the largest private exporter battle over its company’s valuation and whether phytosanitary certification will be issued to allow stranded cargoes to be sold. The Russian government wants to continue to have even greater control of its export/origination of Russian grain and further push for a national grain marketing board. No movement of stranded cargoes has been noted. The weekend terror attack at a Russian concert hall is adding additional uncertainty to instability in the Black Sea Region. Russia also launched attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector.

The Commitment of Traders Report showed funds bought 12,940 contracts of corn (net – 242,988), bought 6,798 contracts of soybeans (net -148,338), and sold 1,700 contracts of Chicago wheat (net -80,570)

The very important grain Stocks/Seeding report is out this Thursday, March 28. The intentions on corn are 91.8 Million acres, soybeans are 86.5 Million Acres, and wheat is 47.3 Million Acres. The wheat acreage includes 10.89 Million acres of spring wheat and 34.87 Million acres of winter wheat. This compares to last year’s seated acreage of 94.6 Mil acres of corn, 83.6 Mil acres of soybeans and 49.6 Mil acres of all wheat.

Safras & Mercado reported that as of 3/22, the Brazilian soybean harvest is 69% complete, compared to 62% last week, and in line with the 5-year average of 69%. Safras & Mercado also reported that the Brazilian first-crop corn harvest is 58% complete (5-year average 58%), and the second-crop corn is 97% planted (5-year average 94%).

South American weather maintains near-normal rains across the northern half of Brazil, with 10-day totals of 1.50-3.50”. The southern half of Brazil and Argentina will dry into April 1. Widely scattered showers return in southern Brazil and Argentina but do not look heavy. The dry weather across Río Grande do Sul will favor soybean harvest, with the Argentine expected to begin harvest in two weeks.

Live cattle were under selling pressure Friday ahead of the Cattle on Feed report, which was considered bearish for this morning’s trade. On Feed as of March 1st, 101.3% of last year (exp 100.9%), February Placements 109.7% (exp 106.4%), and February Marketings 103.4% (exp 103.8%). Last week’s cash trade in the north was $190-191, which was $2-3 higher for the week, with dressed sales $4 higher at $302. In the South, live sales were $2 higher for the week and $188. These are record prices quoted in all regions.

April live cattle have key support at 187.00, which needs to hold to maintain upward momentum. April feeder cattle closed under support on Friday and are at risk of a larger decline. The major 38% Fibonacci retracement for April feeder cattle is 243.00.