The grain trade is checking strength from this week's trade.

The grain trade is lower this morning after overnight momentum from Thursday’s rally was absent. Grain choppiness remains amid a lack of fresh fundamental news, and the NASS Stocks and Seedings report is due next Thursday.

The debate continues over Brazilian soybean and corn crop sizes, while the cash bids in Brazil have risen as a soy harvest reaches 66%. World stock markets in metal prices continue to set record highs, providing a friendly undertow for the grain trade as the “risk-on” trade becomes the new mantra. Meanwhile, the Chinese economic outlook is slowly brightening as consumer demand crews are resilient following last month’s Lunar New Year Holiday.

The EU Commission proposed imposing 95 euros/MT tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus for cereals and 50% for oilseeds. These duties are mostly symbolic rather than having any real economic impact, as the EU imports modest amounts of durum wheat and sunoil from Russia. They’re just to pacify protesting EU farmers who demand that cheap Ukraine grain also be tariffed or substantially limited in import volumes.

BAGE lowered its estimate of Argentina’s corn crop to 54 MMT from 56.5 MMT previously, leaving soybeans unchanged at 52.5 MMT.

NOAA’s drought outlook yesterday calls for drought expansion across IA, MN, WI, and northern SD over the next few months. The US Drought Monitor showed 34% of corn acres remain in drought, down from 36% last week. Of note, 84% of Iowa’s acres are in drought, with 23% in extreme drought and 36% in severe drought conditions.

After early strength yesterday, live and feeder cattle closed lower on the session for the third day in a row, except for the April cattle closing firm. Cash prices were higher in South markets yesterday, which supported nearby futures. The cash feeder cattle index gained $0.41 to a 23-week high of $251.82, nearly $1 over the March feeder cattle close. Cash trade was active, and record prices were reported in all regions. Live trade in the north was quoted at $190-191, with dressed sales at $302. Live sales in the South were $2 higher than last week at $188. Compared to a year ago, cash cattle sales were $25 higher.

Cattle on Feed Report at 2:00 pm CT: Analysts estimate that On Feed as of March 1st was 100.9% of last year, February Placements 106.3%, and February Marketings 103.9%.