The morning grain trade is the reverse of yesterday's closes.

Another mixed morning trade, as yesterday’s wheat strength is challenged today, while soybean weakness has found new buying interest. The wheat trade is soft ahead of a GASC tender for May wheat that may likely get cancelled. Egypt is seeking Russian wheat, but Russian FOB offers will not likely be available. It appears that Russia wants GASC to seek wheat on private versus public terms, allowing Russia to keep its wheat market shrouded in true price discovery.

More turmoil for European farmers, as the European Union has reached a provisional agreement to grant Ukraine tariff-free access to their markets with new limits on some grain imports. There is considerable doubt that the EU can effectively monitor the inflow of Ukraine's grain and collectively apply limits. Corn was included in the tariff list, but not wheat. EU farmers are unhappy with the Brussels offer, and protests will likely continue and intensify. EU parliament and individual governments need to approve the law, which was just produced out of Brussels, and this will not occur until late April or May.

FOMC rate decision at 1:00 p.m. CT. Comments from Fed Chairman Powell to follow. Although it’s widely expected there will be no interest rate adjustments today, what is important is what is put into their communiqué to the public and the question-and-answer period that Jerome Powell produces after the rate decision.

The EPA is expected to release new tailpipe standards today, requiring 66% of US light-duty vehicles to be electric by 2032. This is something the US corn growers in the ethanol industry have been trying to derail. EPA and the Biden administration are going after the light-duty truck market. The announcement could create a negative initial reaction to the corn market from the news, but the proposal is so far into the future and can be diverted by the next president that it may not have any lasting price impact.

An interesting observation in South American pricing is its reflection on crop sizes. Last year, premiums for the Brazilian export market were $0.60 under the May futures by the end of March but then plummeted to a negative $1.75/bu by the beginning of May. This $1.15 drop in cash exportable basis was the clue I will record large and still growing soybean crop. This year’s debates surrounding the Brazilian soybean crop are ongoing, but the cash exportable soybean basis should offer strong clues to the crop size as a harvest pushes beyond 85% complete.

As April begins, the northern half of Brazil looks to receive soaking rainfall. Models are backing away from some exceptional wetness that was scheduled for Río Grande do Sul in Southern Brazil. E Argentine is also drier with normal rainfall. The two-week forecast is turning drier in the southern area of RGDS to quicken the harvest.

Live and feeder cattle softened on Tuesday, retreating some of Monday’s gains, but the deferred feeder cattle state was higher. The cattle trade remains parked near the better level of its recent multi-week trading range. Asking prices in the South are $188, but Packer interest is limited so far. The cash beef trade was slightly mixed on Tuesday, with choice off $0.11 while select picked up $0.13. Both values remained higher on the week.

The NASS will put out its March Cattle on Feed report this Friday. Current tabulated reports show the average trade estimates coming in with a February marketing rate of 104% of last year, a placement rate of 106% and a March 1 feedlot inventory of 101%. If this is realized, the January-Fed placement rate will still be 1% less than a year ago, feedlot inventory will be slightly above last year, and it will mark the second month below the five-year average. Keep in mind this was a leap year, which is an extra day in the month of February.